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July 13, 2008

Pakistan: Former Minister Claims That The US Will Launch "Imminent Attack"

The issue of Pakistan failing to control its militants, who continue to flood into Afghanistan to attack coalition troops, is reaching a crisis point. Afghanistan has blamed the current Pakistani government, led by prime minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani, for making matters worse by making peace deals with the militants in border agencies.

Rangin Dadfar Spanta, Afghanistan's foreign minister, told the UN Security Council on Wednesday that "One of the main factors contributing to the deterioration of the security situation in the country is the de facto truce in the tribal areas beyond the border." His comments hinted at deals made in Swat, as well as hinting of rapprochements being made to Baitullah Mehsud, leader of the Pakistan Taliban, who is based in Waziristan in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province.

As of next month Pakistani troops will begin withdrawing from Swat, as a result of a deal made on May 21, 2008, with Maulana Fazlullah. This radical Islamist has been involved in a campaign that began in January 2007 to take over the region of Swat. By November 2007 he had 59 villages under his control. His abduction of military personnel and control of police stations in Swat have been blamed for Musharraf introducing his "State of Emergency", which lasted for six weeks from November 2, 2007.

Baitullah Mehsud (pictured right) was blamed for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007 though Mehsud has denied this. Under the last government, during the "inter-regnum" between the dissolution of the National Assembly and the advent of elections (which were held on February 18 this year), a concerted effort was made to use force to remove Baitullah Mehsud from his stronghold near Wana, main city of South Waziristan. The caretaker administration was led by Mohammed Mian Soomro as acting prime minister, with Musharraf as president.

On December 14 last year, Baitullah Mehsud announced that he had become the new leader of the Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan. Even though Baitullah Mehsud had been on on an army hit-list since December 2007, in May this year he felt confident enough to give a press conference to foreign journalists. This signaled that no longer was Mehsud "on the run" and fearful for his life. Peace talks which had been initiated under the leadership of the new prime minister Gilani have obviously brought no cessation of Taliban activity, and may have encouraged and emboldened the militants.

The situation in Pakistan re: militancy is now critical. Afghanistan is blaming Pakistan for the rise in cross-border attacks. On Thursday July 10 Pakistan's foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, told the UN Security Council that no incursions into Pakistani territory would be tolerated. He rejected an offer of assistance from the US which was intended to bolster the security of both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

On Saturday the prime minister, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, reiterated Qureshi's comments, claiming Pakistan would allow no-one to interfere with issues of its sovereignty. He also offered condolences to relatives of 13 Frontier Constabulary men who were killed by Taliban on Saturday. Three civilians and one militant were also killed in the ambush which took place on Hangu district of North-West Frontier Province.

The Pakistan prime minister's insistence upon retaining sovereignty came after a cross-border attack by NATO forces. The incident took place on the evening of Thursday July 10 at Angoor Adda (Angoradda). This village is near Wana, main town of South Waziristan agency.

According to Pakistani sources, the incident began when Taliban mounted an attack upon a NATO troop base in Machi-dad in Afghanistan, close to the Durrand line the cartographic border that divides Pakistan from Afghanistan. The Afghan army fired back at militants, but shells hit a Pakistani post in Angoor Adda. Eight Pakistani soldiers were injured, and they exchanged fire, wounding five Afghan soldiers. In the shelling of Angoor Adda, a market was apparently hit, and two civilians were injured.

The US appears to be impatient with the lack of progress made by Pakistan to rein in the Pakistan Taliban. A meeting between Condoleezza Rice and foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in Washington is not believed to have made any constructive progress to this end.

Again, Qureshi asserted to journalists that he would not tolerate any encroachment upon Pakistan's sovereignty, and said that he would not permit Pakistani territory to be used by foreign troops.

On Saturday, Pakistan Taliban from Chitral in NWFP attacked across the border, according to the Afghan government. Pakistani militants attacked the remote Afghan district of Bargi Matal. One Afghan youth was killed in the attack.

Also on Saturday, it was reported that Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, had made a surprise 24-hour visit to Pakistan. Admiral Mullen met with General Kayani, head of the Pakistani army. Kayani reputedly told Mullen that violations of Pakistan's border would no longer be acceptable.

Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, a former head of Pakistan's intelligence/security agency (ISI or Inter-Service Intelligence), was promoted to the position of head of the army on November 15 last year. Kayani was widely regarded by the United States as a moderate and potential ally.

Meanwhile, the Taliban continue to use kidnapping as a potential source of income, a move introduced in March of this year. Maulvi Omar, a spokesman for Tehrik-e-Taliban, said: "We strongly condemn kidnapping for ransom, but if it's for the promotion of the Islamic cause, then it's fair to kidnap persons or soldiers to get our men released."

Kidnapping in NWFP and in the agencies of FATA (Federally-administered tribal areas) that adjoin the Durrand line has seen a recent steep increase.

According to Pakistan's The News: "If one recalls the recent history of US missile attacks in Pakistan, 27 tribesmen were killed in one assault in Mohmand Agency on June 12, at least 12 others were killed in Chinagai on May 14, eight were killed in February in a similar attack in Kalosha, South Waziristan Agency, 16 died in the same agency on March 17 while eight were killed in Saidgai in North Waziristan on January 8.

Yesterday, former interior minister Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao issued a warning that "There is an imminent danger of [a] US attack on Pakistan,” Sherpao told reporters at his residence," Sherpao lives in Charsadda district in NWFP. He was one of the first targets of the Pakistan Taliban under its new leadership - on December 21, 2007, a mosque where he worships was bombed in a suicide attack, killing 56 people. Sherpao was in the mosque at the time, but was unhurt.

Sherpao is probably being paranoid, but his comments will only add to the uncertainty that is felt by Pakistanis in NWFP and in the country at large. With a rise in Islamist militancy and a weak government, Pakistan is already facing an uncertain future.

Last Sunday (July 6), a suicide bomber struck at Islamabad, near the Red Mosque (Lal Masjid). 19 people had died by the end of Sunday, most of them policemen. 40 other individuals were injured. The suicide bomber had walked up to a group of policeman about 300 meters from the mosque, around 8 pm loal time, when he detonated his explosives.

Last year, the Red Mosque had been the hub of a campaign in favor of enforcing strict sharia rule. In January 2007, women students from one of the two madrassas inside the mosque's complex took control of the only children's library. They acted in protest at the demolition of illegally-constructed mosques, but their protest soon took on revolutionary tones.

The women from the Jamia Fareedia madrassa, wearing burkas and bearing sticks, threatened suicide bombings if disturbed. Many of the students came from NWFP. The students from this madrassa as well as the Jamia Hafsa - also within the Lal Masjid comlex - then began kidnapping police personnel and women they thought were prostitutes. They orchestrated the burning of shops that sold western music and CDs. Kidnapped individuals claimed the students at the mosque complex had witnessed a large arsenal inside the madrassas.

On July 3 2007 violence erupted and the standoff which had existed for moths between government and mosque members exploded into conflict. The Lal Masjid was run by two brothers. One of these, Abdul Aziz, tried to escape the mosque complex on July 5, 2007, dressed in a burka. The mosque was stormed on July 10, 2007, and his brother Abdul Rashid Ghazi was killed, along with at least 101 other people. 11 of the dead were soldiers.

The attack last Sunday was timed to coincide with the anniversary of the final battle between the mosque inhabitants and the Pakistani authorities.

On Monday July 7 the head of the suicide bomber was found on the roof of a house. By that time, the death toll from the Lal Masjid suicide attack had risen to twenty.

On Wednesday July 9, a couple of thousand Islamist women dressed in burkas and carrying sticks assembled outside the Red Mosque. They chanted "Jihad is our way!" and promised to raise more children to carry out a jihad.

On Monday July 7, a series of blasts took place in the port city of Karachi, the main city in the southern province of Sindh. SIx explosions took place during the early evening, and 50 people were reported to have been injured. No-one was killed, but the explosions caused panic. The parts of the city affected by the blasts had high numbers of Pashtuns (the ethnic group that usually lives across the Durand line in Pakistan and Afghanistan) and there were suggestions the blasts were aimed to sow inter-ethnic tensions.

Prime minister Gliani condemned the Karachi attacks.

The future of Pakistan is unpredictable. All efforts to negotiate peace with militants have failed, even though there have been several agreements. On Monday July 7, Taliban and tribal elders agreed to expel Uzbek militants from North Waziristan.

The Uzbeks, who came into Pakistan following the collapse of the Afghan Taliban in late 2001, are allied to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which is led by Tahir Yuldashev (Yuldosh). IMU is an al-Qaeda affiliated group. In Waziristan, the Uzbeks are also allied to Baitullah Mehsud. Though on paper, a decision by North Waziristan miltants and tribal people to expel the Uzbeks may seem a good idea, in practice it could lead to more conflicts and local fighting in the region.

Prime MInister Gilani admits that the current spate of terrorist incidents is tarnishing Pakistan's name.

The weakness at the heart of Pakistani politics is not just the result of making peace deals with intransigent Islamists. The February 18 election led to a coalition government, shared between the PPP, the party formerly headed by Benazir Bhutto, and the PML-N party, headed by Nawaz Sharif. The PPP gained 121 of the 342 seats in the National Assembly, while the PML-N party gained 96 seats. The Jamaat-e-Islami party gained only six seats, compared to the 65 members that their six-party MMA coalition had in the last National Assembly.

Sharif was banned from standing as a government official, as he has a conviction. Initially the PML-N shared power with the PPP party (to which Gilani belongs), but when Gilani's party failed to reinstate the judges ousted by Musharraf during his State of Emergency, the PML-N withdrew its representatives from the cabinet. PML-N representatives remain in the National Assembly, but not at the heart of government. Gilani hopes that these PML-N ministers will return son.

Gilani is not the head of the PPP - that role belongs to Benazir Bhutto's widower, Ali Asif Zardari. Currently, Zardari appears to be staying away from Pakistan. He will soon be in London, at the same time as Nawaz Sharif, but the PPP leader has confirmed that he will not be meeting with his coalition "ally".

The PPP wants Musharraf to stand down as president. But Zardari himself has been blamed by lawyers for the former Chief Justice and other senior judges not being reinstated. These were sacked by Musharraf.

Zardari apparently only favors the return of these judges after reforms have been introduced. Lawyers have vowed to continue their fight to have all sacked judges reinstated.

Until the elected politicians can create a strong ruling cabinet, it appears that Pakistan is led by an increasingly impotent government. While the center of government has a vacuum, it will be increasingly easy for Islamists to destabilize the nation.

Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at July 13, 2008 9:26 PM

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