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February 18, 2008

Pakistan Elections: Voters Tired Of Islamist Parties

This article by Adrian Morgan (Giraldus Cambrensis of Western Resistance) appeared today in Family Security Matters and is reproduced with their permission.

Pakistan Elections

Today (Monday February 18) Pakistan will have its elections. More than 80 million people will be voting for candidates who will fill 272 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.

These elections should have taken place on January 8. The assassination of the main opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), on December 27, 2007 threw the country into chaos. There were accusations, so far unfounded, that President Pervez Musharraf had ordered Ms Bhutto's murder. PPP members rioted for several days after the assassination. Five people have now been arrested for plotting the murder of Ms Bhutto.

The PPP leadership passed to her husband Asif Ali Zardari. This individual gained the nickname of "Mr Ten Percent" through his apparent corruption. He is still facing charges in Switzerland of imposing his own "extra taxes" on imported goods when he served in Bhutto's government of 1993 to 1996 as investment minister.

Zardari's inheritance of the PPP leadership resulted from a handwritten will, which he refused to show to reporters. He said on Sunday December 30 that he would not be leading the party. Instead, his 19-year old son Bilawal became the chairman of the PPP, with Zardari as co-chairman. Bilawal, who changed his name to "Bhutto" on the same day, cannot serve in parliament until he is 25, so Zardari is acting "regent" of the party.

He had claimed that he would not attempt to become prime minister if the PPP wins today's polls, but on February 1 Babar Awan, the party's finance secretary, said that Zardari could be selected as one of the party's candidates for the post. On February 4 Zardari suggested that he could be interested in becoming prime minister. Two days later, he said: "I am not contesting the elections and, therefore, the question of my becoming a candidate for the post of prime minister does not arise." He dismissed the PML-Q (Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid) party, to which Musharraf belongs, as "political orphans".

Zardari has suggested that the PPP would be willing to form an alliance with the PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz). This party is headed by Nawaz Sharif, who was banned from standing for election in December 2007. Nawaz had been prime minister in 1999 when his attempts to prevent Musharraf from returning to Pakisan led to the latter's coup against him. He was given a life sentence on terrorism charges, which was lifted when he agreed to live in exile. Nawaz officially returned on November 25 last year.

Vote-Rigging Fears

On Friday February 15, Human Rights Watch released an audio recording which had allegedly been made in November last year. It purported to feature Malik Qayyum, the attorney-general, stating in Urdu that the elections would be "massively rigged". Qayyum has denied making the comments, calling the accusations "baseless".

Fears of possible election rigging have been expressed by most parties. On February 6, the PML-Q president claimed it feared vote-rigging by the PML-N party, led by Nawaz Sharif, and others. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain explained that such rigging was likely to take place at a constituency, rather than state, level. He said that state-level rigging was rare in Pakistan, but stated that the 1973 elections "were engineered and rigged by former premier Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (Benazir Bhutto's father)".

The election needs to be seen to be fair. There will only be a few American election observers being on hand to ensure vote-rigging does not take place. Last week, European Union observers were the only credible monitors guaranteed to be witnessing the ballot process. The National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the Carter Centre, which had been expected to send observers, had stayed away due to the unsafe environment and fears that the election had already been compromised due to intimidation.

The International Republican Institute (IRI) had intended to send a team of 60 to join 40 US embassy officials to monitor the elections. This group also pulled out on January 30, initially blaming security, and then listing visa restrictions. The OIC has a team of observers in Pakistan, but this group has not signed a pledge to uphold UN standards of monitoring.

Attempts by the US Agency for International Development to recruit official American observers were finally successful at "the eleventh hour". Democracy International, based in Bethesda, agreed on February 8 to act as official monitors.

Though the IRI had decided against sending an election observation team, it released the results of its poll of 3,485 voters on Monday February 11. The poll had taken place from January 19 - 29 in 223 rural locations and 127 urban centers.

The poll found that Musharraf's party (PML-Q) had only 14% of the respondents' support, with three-quarters wanting Musharraf out of office. 50% claimed they supported the PPP of Zadari/Bhutto and 22% supported Nawaz Sharif's PML-N.

How voters will respond today is a matter of debate. The "sympathy vote" for Benazir Bhutto may not be extended to a party headed by Asif Ali Zardari. In an interview on Saturday night with the Sunday Times, Zardari warned of an uprising if his party did not gain its expected majority in the polls. He said: "Up till now I've shown absolute patience. My wife has been killed, yet I've calmed people down, stopped them protesting, I've called no strike. But I'm telling you, people are absolutely on the warpath. If the elections are rigged the situation will go out of my hands. We'll have no choice but to take to the streets."

Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have met twice in the past week. It appears they have been discussing the likelihood of forming a PPP/PML-N coalition. This scenario could create a majority government, even though doubts remain as to who would be the prime minister.

The most populous province is Punjab with 147 seats being contested. Several seats in the south could go either way. It is from this province that Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi hails, a successor to a dynasty that has had bad blood with the Bhutto dynasty. Elahi is already well known in Punjab, being the Chief Minister of the Punjab. He is Musharraf's favored choice for prime minister if the PML-Q or a related coalition gains power.

The MQM (Muttahida Qaumi Movement) is a semi-secular party which supports Musharraf and is opposed to Islamism. Its leader, Altaf Hussain, is based in London. He fled there in 1992, after a murder charge was brought against him in Pakistan. In Karachi, the MMQ employed kite-flying displays, music, giant hot air balloons, and men in animal suits handing out novelty gifts to children to attract votes. This party has its strongest support in Karachi, Sindh province, but as this was also the home of Benazir Bhutto, it is uncertain if MQM will gain many seats here.

Yesterday, a man carrying 500 ballot papers was said to have been arrested in southern Pakistan. Mohammad Ali Gadehi, a police officer, said the man appeared to be a supporter of Musharraf's PML-Q party, but confirmation was still needed.

With 65,000 polling stations in Pakistan, and election monitors having to be in teams of at least two in number, it is unlikely that an accurate assessment of "fairness" can be maintained by the monitors currently available.

Pre-Election Violence

On February 6 in Sindh province in the south, rioters protested against the murder of provincial vice president of the Awami National Party (ANP). Fazlur Rehman Akakhel was shot in the head by a motorcycle gunman. This leftist nationalist party is a minority, mainly supported by Pashtun-speakers in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). It gained only 1% of the 2002 vote, and did not have any seats in the National Assembly. It is secular and opposed to Islamism.

On Saturday February 2 in Charsadda, NWFP, a rally for the ANP was hit by a suicide bomber. 200 people were gathered in a hall when the attacker approached the podium where an ANP member was reading the Koran. 20 people, including at least four children and two policemen, were killed, and 45 were injured. The suicide bomber's head was retrieved from the blast site.

On the morning of SaturdayFebruary 16, six polling stations were blown up in Khar, Bajaur agency in NWFP. Islamist militants were blamed for the attack, though no-one was injured. In another incident, a polling official narrowly escaped death when a roadside bomb was detonated as his vehicle passed. One man was arrested. 49 of Bajaur's polling stations were said to be "sensitive".

Around Pakistan, security has been tightened in preparation for the elections. 500,000 security personnel, including 81,000 troops have been posted in 90,000 areas which are considered "sensitive". In Punjab province, where politicking between rivals has been fierce, there have been reports of police and militias loyal to the Chaudhry clan using armed intimidation.

The worst incident of election violence took place this weekend on Saturday, the last day of official campaigning. A suicide bomber drove a car laden with explosives into a crowd outside the office of an independent candidate in Parachinar in Kurram agency. This part of NWFP is close to the Afghan border. The candidate was Dr Syed Riaz Hussain Shah, who was returning to his office from an election rally. At least 38 people were initially killed, including six children. 109 people were injured with a large proportion of these in a critical condition. The candidate, who is allied to the PPP party, was unhurt in the attack.

The severity of the Parachinar blast knocked out local power supplies. A curfew was mounted in the area, and gunfire continued. By yesterday, the death toll had risen to 47. Fida Mohammad Khan, a local administrative official, warned that the election in the constituency of Parachinar could be postponed on account of the curfew. A similar curfew was imposed on Saturday night in Bajaur agency.

A plot to blow up polling booths in Hyderabad in the southern province of Sindh today as polling took place was said to have been foiled at the weekend, and ten "militants" were captured in Karachi.

The Islamist Parties: Boycotts And "Mullah Fatigue"

In the last National Assembly, 65 of the seats were held by members of the MMA (Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal or United Front), a coalition of six Islamist parties. The MMA was popular in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) in the 2002 elections, and gained a strong majority in the NWFP provincial assembly.

The MMA tried twice to introduce an Islamist morality bill into NWFP, but the provincial governor refused to sign these into law. These attempts to introduce the "Hasbah" or "Hisbah" would have set up a "morality police" under the control of a clerical officer called a Mohtasib, a body not unlike the religious police of Saudi Arabia or the Taliban.

The aim of the MMA parties is to eventually have Pakistan ruled entirely under Sharia law. In May 2007, the MMA introduced a draft law to the National Assembly which would see apostates from Islam punished with death.

In this election, it is guaranteed that the Islamists of the MMA will not gain the same number of seats as they did in the last elections. The main party in the MMA is the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), whose president is Qazi Hussain Ahmed. This individual has decided that he will boycott the elections, and has joined the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM), a coalition of small, mostly tribal, parties that is boycotting the elections.

Former cricket hero Imran Khan, who was the sole parliamentary representative of the Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party, is a member of the APDM. Khan was arrested during the State of Emergency which began on November 3 and lasted for six weeks. Ironically, Khan was captured by student members of Qazi Hussain Ahmed's JeI party before being handed to police. Hamid Gul, a former commander of Pakistan's intelligence unit the ISI, is also part of the APDM movement. Hamid Gul has openly proclaimed his support for Osama bin Laden. Qazi Hussain Ahmed has also supported bin Laden.

On Thursday, February 14, Qazi said at an APDM rally that Musharraf had committed high treason under Article 6 of the constitution. Referring to the State of Emergency, he complained of the removal of judges and said he wished for the army in future to refuse to support anyone who breached constitutional rules. He also called for the National Security Council to be abolished. Even though displays of weaponry are banned in election campaigns, men armed with Kalashnikovs patrolled the APDM rally in Rawalpindi.

To make matters worse for the Islamists who are standing for election, the leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), the second largest party within the MMA, has been too fearful to go outside to campaign. In 1993, his party formed a coalition with the ruling PPP party. The JUI-F party is expected to win several seats in NWFP and Baluchistan province.

JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman, known for his belligerent statements against America and Musharraf, was shocked to hear that there had been a bomb plot against him. A 16-year old youth was arrested late on Saturday, February 2 in Dera Ismail Khan in NWFP, the district where Fazlur Rehman lives. The teenager was wearing an explosive suicide vest, and admitted to intelligence officials that Fazlur Rehman was his target. Two accomplices of the boy were being sought.

Why Islamist terrorists should wish to kill an Islamist politician appears to stem from last year, when the Red Mosque in Islamabad was raided. This mosque (Lal Masjid) had been engaged in kidnappings and threats of suicide attack. It was finally raided in June. Two brothers ran the compound and its madrassa schools. One of these (Abdul Rashid Ghazi) was killed in fighting with security forces, and his younger brother Abdul Aziz was arrested as he escaped disguised in a burka. The mosque had links with Islamists in NWFP, and most of the students came from this province. Fazlur Rehman had publicly opposed the brothers who ran the Red Mosque.

In 2002 many in NWFP had voted for MMA parties, expecting them to bring some form of peace to a region already invaded by Al Qaeda refugees from Afghanistan. Since that time, the militancy in NWFP has got worse and tribal people appear disillusioned with Islamist politicians who seem unable to deal with Islamist fanatics. The Pakistan military has had a strong presence in the region since 2003, with some 70,000 troops positioned, but the army has been unable to contain various insurgencies.

The disillusionment with Islamist politicians has been described by the BBC and the Hindustan Times as "Mullah Fatigue". ,

A bread-seller in NWFP told AFP: "I will never vote for JUI or any other religious parties again because they failed to deliver the goods and provide protection to people."

How the elections will end up is still uncertain. If the PPP do not gain the votes they expect, there could be organized protests, which could push the nation further away from some peaceful solution to its problems. If the PPP and PML-N unite under a coalition government, there may be some peace, but Zardari's reputation of corruption could destabilize the nation, particularly if he became prime minister. If the PML-Q and a coalition of supporting candidates gains the majority, there may be stability in parliament, but more Islamist unrest in NWFP and Baluchistan.

What Pakistan, its neighbors and the world at large needs from these elections is political stability. Despite the turmoil in parts of Pakistan over the past five years, the last government was the first to complete its full term of office during the sixty years since Pakistan gained independence.

No matter who wins the election and leads the next parliament, Pakistan's future will remain uncertain for years to come.

Adrian Morgan

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Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at February 18, 2008 6:41 AM

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