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January 26, 2008

Pakistan: Islamist "Fired" By Taliban

News from The Asian Age and The Times of India, the Pakistan Daily Times, Strategy Page and other sources all state that Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban in Afghanistan, has "sacked" Baitullah Mehsud, the Waziristan-based Islamist who in late 2007 founded the coalition of Pakistani Islamists called the Tehrik-e-Taliban, an official front of the Pakistan Taliban.

The news items all derive from the same source, Thursday's edition of Asia Times. This article states that Mullah Omar has sacked Baitullah Mehsud as he has been fighting the Pakistan army, rather than focusing on fighting Nato troops. Mullah Omar had himself appointed Mehsud to head the Tehrik-e-Taliban. According to Time, which quotes an al-Jazeera journalist describing Baitullah Mehsud as being "an affable jokester who wears a camouflage vest over his traditional tunic and trousers", Baitullah Mehsud "was with Mullah Omar when the Taliban first started."

The Tehrik-e-Taliban carried out a suicide bombing at a mosque in Charsadda district in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) on December 21, killing at least 56 people. The mosque was attended by Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, who was the interior minister in the last government. The group is blamed by American and Pakistani officials for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007. Baitullah Mehsud denies this.

In December 2007, Mullah Omar publicly sacked the recently-appointed Taliban commander who was mounting the campaign against British troops in southern Afghanistan, particularly in Helmand province. Mansoor Dadullah had been sacked, it was claimed, for disobeying orders and acting against the Taliban's codes. Dadullah himself denied that he was sacked, and refused to acknowledge his dismissal. The continuing rift between him and Omar indicated cracks in the Afghan Taliban leadership.

Strategy Page indicates that the Afghan Taliban rift has been motivated by a difference of generations. The older generation of Taliban fighters is in disagreement with the aims of newer members, who see great profits to be made from the heroin trade.

Asia Times claims that after Mullah Omar officially sacked Baitullah Mehsud, he appointed Moulvi Faqir Mohammed from Bajaur agency in NWFP to replace him. He refused. Other discussions to find a replacement have foundered.

Asia Times indicates that Baitullah Mehsud's removal came as is activities are distracting from the stretegic aims of the Taliban. Last year the Taliban in Afghanistan mounted a "spring offensive" led by Dadullah's older brother, who was killed in May 2007. Many Pakistan Taliban have signed peace deals with the Pakistan government and army, which would have allowed their followers to take part in the next "spring offensive" in Afghanistan, which is due to start in a few months.

Mehsud has nonetheless been active in undermining Nato forces. The Telegraph reported yesterday that Baitullah Mehsud's militants have been successfully preventing supplies from reaching their goals - Nato forces in Afghanistan. Lorries traveling through NWFP are singled out and attacked, and their consigments are then "vanished". The most recent of these raids, the Telegraph states, was carried out near the town of Dera Ismail Khan on the Indus Highway. A Pakistani official said: "Among the booty they discovered trucks carrying cargos of pristine 4x4 military vehicles, fitted with the most modern communications and listening technology."

Currently, Baitullah Mehsud has been the subject of an offensive mounted by the Pakistan army in South Waziristan where he has a tribal base. This began in earnest this week. On Monday, it was disclosed that Younas Mehsud, a "right hand man" of Baitullah Mehsud was captured by police. This (unrelated) individual had with him explosives which were seized.

According to Pakistan's The News, forty militants and 10 soldiers were said to have been killed in an army assault in South Waziristan. On Thursday this assault concentrated on the towns of Spinkai Raghzai in Srarogha near Jandola, Mohammad Nawaz Kot in Tiarza and Makeen. The Tehrik-e-Taliban claimed they had captured five soldiers and five truckloads of Nato-bound ammunition.

Yesterday, states Dawn, two soldiers were killed in a rocket attack by the Tehrik-e-Taliban upon a military outpost in in Spinkai Raghzai. Baitullah's spokesman claimed that Baitullah Mehsud has vowed to increase attacks upon security forces in NWFP and in the border regions.

There appears to be no intent upon the part of Mehsud to relinquish his post, and he appears to be more publicly belligerent. By attacking Nato-bound trucks, he is contradicting the stated claims against him, made by Mullah Omar. This action, combined with the refusal by Mansoor Dadullah to acknowledge his dismissal, can only serve to weaken the status of Mullah Omar as the leader of the Taliban. Dadullah's brother was a close ally of Baitullah Mehsud.

However, even if the leadership of the Taliban changes, and whether or not a younger generation of militants will utilize the export of heroin to gain funds, the problem of the Taliban will be a cause for concern for both countries, and also for the West. Baitullah Mehsud recently told Al Jazeera that the Tehrik-e-Taliban poses no threat to the nuclear weapons in Pakistan's arsenal. He said that Washington was the real danger.

Baitullah Mehsud is vehemently opposed to the West. As we wrote earlier:

He has said: "Allah on 480 occasions in the Holy Koran extols Muslims to wage jihad. We only fulfil God's orders. Only jihad can bring peace to the world. We will continue our struggle until foreign troops are thrown out. Then we will attack them in the US and Britain until they either accept Islam or agree to pay jizyah [a tax in Islam for non-Muslims living in an Islamic state].... The mujahideen will carry out even more severe attacks. If they [the West] have air power we have fidayeen [suicide bombers]... They will leave dishonored."

Baitullah Mehsud has been notoriously fickle in his dealings with the Pakistani army and government. In January 2005 he had been offered an amnnesty, an offer which was later withdrawn after his one-legged brother Abdullah had slaughtered a kidnapped Chinese engineer. In August 2005 Baitullah agreed a ceasefire with the army. WIthin a couple of months, this ceasefire was broken.

Abdullah Mehsud had spent 25 months in Guantanamo following his arrest in Kunduz, northern Afghanistan, in December 2001. He was released in March 2004, and returned to Pakistan. He finally killed himself by blowing himself up to avoid arrest on July 24, 2007 in the town of Zhob, Baluchistan province. His remains were found in the house of a local leader of the JUI-F, the Islamist party with which Benazir Bhutto had shared power from 1993 to 1996.

On March 2, 2007, Baitullah Mehsud had signed a peace deal with the Pakistani government, but later that month, he was involved in serious fighting in Tank DIstrict in NWFP which caused the deaths of two dozen people and the destruction of banks. In October 2007, after Baitullah Mehsud warned that three soldiers would be killed each day until the army stopped resisting his militants in Tank, the bodies of three soldiers were found with heads and limbs hacked off.

On Monday January 7 this week, nine "peace-brokers" were killed in two separate attacks carried out in Wana and Shakai in South Waziristan, where Baitullah Mehsud's tribe live. The nine people who were killed were aides of a local Taliban commander, Maulvi Nazir, who is pro-government. The attacks are said to have happened because Nazir refused to join Mehsud while he gave shelter to Uzbek militants.

These Uzbeks are affiliated to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). In April 2007, after weeks of serious fighting between Taliban and Uzbeks in South Waziristan, Nazir had claimed that the region would not be a "safe sanctuary for foreign miscreants". Despite his claimed support for assisting the government in creating peace in Waziristan, he said his followers would "fight the US and the infidel forces if they attack our territory." He also said he would offer bin Laden sanctuary if asked. He said he would allow "peaceful foreigners" into the region.

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was founded in Kandahar, Afghanistan in 1998, with the intention of forming an Islamist state in Uzbekistan. Now it seeks to subsume other Central Asian states. It is led by Tahir Yuldashev (Yuldosh), who gained permission in May 1999 from Afghanistan's Taliban to establish a base in the north of that country, where he was thought to reside until recently. In September 2006, Pakistani intelligence believed Yuldashev was hiding in the tribal areas between Afghanistan and NWFP. Yuldashev is known in Waziristan as Tahir Jan.

The IMU is listed as a terror organization by the US State Department. It was involved in attacks upon Afghanistan's western-affiliated Northern Alliance, and most of the Uzbeks who have been trying to gain influence in Pakistan's tribal regions appear to have arrived since the end of 2001, when the US invaded Afghanistan. The Uzbeks have been involved in fighting in the Swat valley in NWFP. Army and police surrenders to Islamists in Swat were partially blamed for the implementation of the State of Emergency.

In Waziristan, the Uzbeks have been opposed by Waziri tribespeople. The Uzbeks are said to have operated private jails in the region where Waziris were held, creating tribal resentment. Baitullah Mehsud is not from the Wazir tribes, who speak Wazirwola. He is a Pashtun, and speaks Pashto, the lingua franca of parts of NWFP and most of Afghanistan.

On Saturday January 4 2008, Ali Muhammad Jan Orakzai (Aurakazi) resigned from his position as the governor of NWFP. He cited personal reasons for his resignation, but the London Times suggests that he was angered by the interim Pakistan government's decision to launch an assault against Baitullah Mehsud. This plan had been on hold for at least a week, awaiting approval from the government. On Monday, caretaker Interior Minister Hamid Nawaz officially announced the strategy to arrest Baitullah Mehsud alive, if possible. The minister affirmed that no foreign forces would be involved.

It is hardly likely that any person will voluntarily step up to replace him as head of the Tehrik-e-Taliban, as he is feared. He has close links with the Uzbek Al Qaeda-linked militants led by Yuldashev, who are similarly feared. Mullah Omar seems to be losing control of the Taliban, threatened by a younger generation (Baitullah is aged 34-35). For the West, and those who monitor the stability of the region, despite the problems of leadership, one fact remains: the Taliban effectively exists as one single - if factional - entity in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, with no respect for the Durrand line border that officially separates them.

Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at January 26, 2008 6:18 PM

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Posted by: BangkokBill at February 2, 2008 12:02 PM

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