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January 3, 2008

Pakistan: Democracy, Islamism And Corruption

This article by Adrian Morgan (Giraldus Cambrensis of Western Resistance) appeared today in Family Security Matters and is reproduced with their permission.

Pakistan: A Crisis Of Confidence?

Conspiracy Theories, Blame And Recriminations

Benazir Bhutto was killed in Rawalpindi on Thursday December 27, an event that shocked world leaders and plunged many parts of Pakistan into chaos as her supporters, fearing a conspiracy, rioted. Bhutto was hastily buried the following day on the request of her husband, Asif Zardari. She was laid to rest in the Bhutto family's mausoleum in the village of Garhi Khuda Bakhsh in the southern province of Sindh. She was buried next to father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who had founded the PPP party.

As soon as the burial took place, an argument broke out over the exact circumstances of her death. On Pakistani TV the spokesman for the interim government's Interior Ministry, Brigadier Javed Iqbal Cheema, tried to silence rumors that Benazir Bhutto had been shot. He claiming that she had hit her head on her vehicle's sunroof lever as she had tried to duck. Eyewitnesses had claimed that shots had been fired at Ms Bhutto, apparently hitting her in the neck, and then a suicide bomber had detonated a device. Cheema claimed that Pakistani intelligence had intercepted a phone conversation by Baitullah Mehsud, a Pakistani militant with links to Al Qaeda.

On the day of the attack, an Afghan member of Al Qaeda had claimed: "We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen."

Baitullah Mehsud is head of the newly formed Tehrik-i-Taliban, a coalition of local Taliban and other Islamist groups who operate in the troubled North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), which adjoins the Afghan border. The group announced its formation on December 14, 2007 and carried out the suicide bombing at a mosque in Charsadda, NWFP, on December 21. The spokesman for Baitullah Mehsud refuted claims that his group had killed Ms Bhutto, saying: "I strongly deny it. Tribal people have their own customs. We don't strike women."

Mehsud's spokesman claimed that Ms Bhuto's assassination was a "well-planned conspiracy carried out by the intelligence agencies, army and government for their own political motives." According to Brigadier Cheema, an intercepted phone call revealed Mehsud saying: "It was a tremendous effort. They were really brave boys who killed her." On Sunday, a Pakistan TV station reported that security agencies had devised a strategy to eliminate Mehsud, and were waiting for government approval before implementing this.

The peddlers of conspiracy theories have been in overdrive, both inside Pakistan and beyond, even among Democrat candidates. Two days after the assassination, Hillary Rodham Clinton hinted that the army may have been responsible. She said: "There are those saying that Al Qaeda did it. Others are saying it looked like it was an inside job - remember Rawalpindi is a garrison city." On the evening of the assassination, both Clinton and her rival Barack Obama used the event to score points off each other.

In Iowa, both hoping to win the upcoming caucus votes, Clinton boasted that she had known Benazir Bhutto for more than a dozen years while Obama attempted to portray himself as a seasoned analyst of Pakistan. He said he had been drawing attention to the problems in Pakistan for "some time", and added: "We were distracted from focusing on them."

Obama's "some time" is all of four months. In August he had suggested that if he became President in 2008 he could urge unilateral action in combating the terrorists of NWFP. He said then: "If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will." Those comments from late summer, based more on show than substance, attracted widespread condemnation. Obama had also hinted that he would not rule out the use of nukes, inspiring Republican candidate Mitt Romney to quip that Obama had "gone from Jane Fonda to Dr Strangelove in one week."

The contradictory accounts of how Benazir Bhutto died have not helped to quell conspiracy theories. House speaker Nancy Pelosi has jumped into the fray and called for an "international investigation" into the circumstances of Bhutto's death.

The account given by Javed Iqbal Cheema that Bhutto died by striking her head on a sunroof lever while ducking gunfire is certainly weak. It has been contradicted by eyewitnesses who claim she was shot in the neck before the subsequent explosion. For the benefit of TV cameras, Cheema briefly waved what he called an X-ray, though it seemed more like a CT scan. According to doctors from Rawalpindi General Hospital, Bhutto died from head injuries caused by shrapnel, and not bullets.

Within hours of the bombing, the scene outside Liaqat Bagh park was being hosed down with water, hardly conducive for forensic analysis. Asif Zardari, Bhutto's widower, ordered her immediate burial, thus preventing an independent post-mortem from taking place. Zardari refused the offer of an autopsy, but on Sunday the PPP called for a UN investigation. The Pakistani government offered to exhume Ms Bhutto's corpse to dispel doubts about her cause of death and thus counter accusations of a cover-up. The PPP did not desire for this, which could lead a cynic to assume that they have a vested interest in maintaining a climate of doubt.

Supporters of Bhutto and her PPP party ran amuck from the time of the announcement of her death. Across Pakistan, rioters threatened to destroy stores that did not observe a three day period of mourning. This action caused problems for those with health problems, unable to get medicines from drugstores. India briefly suspended rail services in and out of Pakistan, restoring these services on Sunday. Over the weekend, 26 railway engines were set on fire, with 20 of these destroyed, and three railway bridges were blown up. 140 train carriages were burnt out, and signal systems had been damaged. Railways in Karachi, Sindh province, received the majority of the arson. On October 18, 139 people had been killed in Karachi in an earlier bomb attack on Benazir Bhutto. Ms Bhutto lived in Karachi city since coming back to Pakistan after her eight-year exile.

Rioters attacked and set fire to at least 27 railway stations, 285 banks, 204 offices, 572 vehicles, 36 gasoline pumps, 10 Election Commission offices and 802 shops. By Monday, the death toll from the riots had reached 58, and the damage to property and businesses had cost an estimated loss of $4.8 billion. A third of this cost derived from losses from banks. Many of the rioters were blaming the army or President Musharraf for Benazir Bhutto's death, though there is no evidence to support this.

An email that was apparently sent by Ms Bhutto before her death to Mark Siegel - her representative in the US - has been touted by some as "proof" of Musharraf's complicity. This email had claimed that should something happen to her, then "Musharraf should be held responsible". Zardari, who had been careful to exonerate the army of complicity in his late wife's killing, nonetheless made public mention of this email, exploiting the popular sentiment amongst supporter's of Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) that Musharraf was to blame.

On Sunday, Zardari said that the PML-Q party (Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid-e-Azam) which Musharraf belongs to, should be called the Qatil League (Killer League).

Qazi Hussain Ahmed is the 69-year old head of the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) party, and president of the coalition of six Islamist parties called the MMA (Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal or United Action Front). He blamed Musharraf for Bhutto's death. Qazi Hussain Ahmed (pictured) is hardly to be trusted as an authority - he has been vehemently opposed to President Musharraf since 2001 when the President agreed to assist the United States in its War on Terror. In October 2005, Qazi called for an Islamic revolution against Musharraf. Qazi is virulently anti-American and in February 2006, he led anti-cartoon riots at which protesters called for Musharraf's death. Qazi has also repeatedly praised Osama bin Laden, so he naturally has a grudge against the President.

The Bhutto "Dynasty"

Benazir Bhutto would have gained a probable victory at elections which were due to be held on January 8 this year. She was popular amongst a large section of the Pakistani populace. An outspoken critic of Islamist fanaticism, her election would have provided a semblance of national stability, and would certainly have boosted the efforts of the Western "War on Terrorism" against Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists currently living mainly in NWFP.

However, her death has revealed how her PPP party is - and always has been - lacking in a coherent political strategy. Despite her recent condemnations of Islamic extremists, when she was prime minister for the second time, from 1993 to 1996, she led a coalition of the PPP and the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i-Islami (JUI). This fundamentalist party belongs to the current MMA coalition, and exists in two factions. One is led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who has argued for democracy to be replaced by Sharia Law, and the other JUI faction is led by Maulana Sami ul-Haq. The latter individual trained Mullah Omar and other leading members of the Afghan Taliban in his Deobandi seminary, the Haqqania in NWFP. That Benazir Bhutto has politically sided with the same people who have inspired the Islamists who are said to have killed her is an irony that illustrates her party's injudicious lack of policies.

Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the vice chairman of the PPP, announced that he had a handwritten will from Ms Bhutto, which declared that her widower, Asif Ali Zardari, should become her successor as leader of the party. Zardari - who has a history of corruption allegations, and has faced two allegations of murder, had apparently conceded that he was too controversial to take on the mantle of leadership. Instead, he agreed that his 19-year old son Bilawal should become the successor at the helm of the PPP while he would act as "regent". On Sunday, Bilawal officially changed his name to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. Until his mother's death, Bilawal had not set foot in his native land since he was aged ten. Politically, there is no means for him to become eligible to be elected to parliament for another six years, when he attains the age of 25.

On Sunday, Bilawal was officially made the chairman of the PPP, while his controversial father was announced as co-chairman. Bilawal, who bears a certain facial resemblance to his mother, will be continuing his studies at Christ Church College at Oxford University while his father Zardari acts as leader of the party. In the fall, Bilawal had enrolled at the university to study history, accompanied by his mother. She had urged him to join the Oxford Union, at which she had been president when she attended Oxford University.

Even before the press conference to announce Zardari and Bilawal's inheritance of the PPP leadership, there were voices of dissent from within the party. The (print edition) Sunday Telegraph quoted a long-standing adviser to Ms Bhutto: "People might stay quiet in the beginning in deference to Benazir's memory, but if he (Zardari) takes over it will split the party and destroy it."

The notion of either a man who has been accused (but not convicted) of murdering Bhutto's brother Murtaza, or a 19 year old who cannot hold office for another six years, leading a political party is incompatible with Western notions of democracy. The will, if it is genuine, offering the leadership of the party to Asif Zardari who served 8 years in a Pakistani jail and is still wanted on corruption charges by Britain and Switzerland, suggests Bhutto had contempt for real democracy.

It is easy to envisage a dictator like Castro passing on the reins of power to another sleazy relative. In the West, where there have been dynastic families such as the Kennedys and the Bushes, the successors had to earn their credentials through democratic means. In India, Indira Gandhi was part of a dynasty, following in the footsteps of her father Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru who steered India to independence from Britain. Her playboy son Sanjay was tipped to inherit her role within the Congress Party, but he was killed in a plane crash while showing off in 1980. Her other son Rajiv was torn to pieces by a Sri Lankan suicide bomber in May 1991, effectively ending the Nehru dynasty. At least the successors of Nehru submitted themselves to the democratic process.

Zardari was keen to see the elections go ahead on January 8, hoping to gain the sympathy vote. On Monday New Year's Day he claimed that the opposition parties would not countenance any delays in the elections.

On Tuesday, the Election Commission was expected to give a date for the election, but this was delayed. Again on Wednesday the commission did not set a date. It is unlikely to take place for a few weeks. The longer there is a delay in setting a date for the election, the cracks in the PPP party are getting wider, and the position of Zardari as a "regent" is becoming threatened by voices of dissent.

The Bhutto family clan in Sindh province is led by 74-year old Mumtaz Bhutto. He said on Tuesday that having Zardari as head of the PPP party was disastrous. "Zardari is an illiterate man. He has no political background or experience. He will not be able to conduct himself as the same level as Benazir", he claimed. "Most unfortunate... He has become a billionaire with bank balances and studs and ranches all over the world. That should have been enough for him."

Another PPP member cast doubt on the wisdom of having a 19-year old as head of the party, telling the Australian: "Even in the context of our feudal traditions, it looks silly. What on earth can a 19-year-old kid who can't even be elected to parliament bring to the party, apart from the name Bhutto?"

Elections

After President Musharraf instituted a state of emergency decree on November 3, which lasted for six weeks, it is vital that elections take place as soon as possible. However, there are issues which would suggest that a delay could be necessary. Electoral Commission offices have been destroyed by rioters. With the offices the list of voters for these regions has been lost and so their electoral roll needs to be recompiled. One million temporary staff to manage the elections will have to be recruited again.

By Monday, some sense of normality had returned to many parts which had suffered due to rioting, but the delays in setting an election date could instigate more civil unrest.

On the day of Benazir Bhutto's assassination Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the PML-N party (Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz), announced that his party would be boycotting the elections. On December 3, 2007, Sharif was officially banned from standing for election. His brother Shahbaz was also barred from standing in the upcoming elections as he is awaiting a trial. Nawaz Sharif was prime minister from 1990 until 1993 and again from until February 1997 to October 1999. The reasons for Nawaz being banned from standing for political office relate to his criminal convictions.

In October 1999, when Musharraf was the head of the army, Sharif had ordered that a plane carrying the military chief could not land at Karachi airport in Pakistan. In response, Musharraf had led an army coup against Nawaz Sharif, who was tried and convicted of hijacking and terrorism, and given a life sentence. He was offered the opportunity to go into exile rather than serve a life sentence, and he left Pakistan in December 1999.

In September 2007, Sharif had returned to Pakistan, apparently with the consent of the then-Chief Justice, Iftikhar Choudary. On September 10, Musharraf had deported him back to Saudi Arabia. On November 25, during the state of emergency, Nawaz Sharif had returned to Pakistan with the consent of President Musharraf.

According to a (now-jailed) former senior member of the ISI, Khalid Khawaja, Nawaz Sharif had repeatedly received funds from Osama bin Laden, claims that Nawaz has denied. According to Khawaja's testimony from March 2006, in 1990 Al Qaeda wanted to overthrow the PPP government of Benazir Bhutto - during her first stint as prime minister. Nawaz had met bin Laden three times in Saudi Arabia, Khawaja claimed. Similar claims were also made by Qazi Hussain Ahmed.

During this past weekend, Nawaz Sharif has changed his position on the election boycott. A spokesman announced on Sunday that his PML-N party would be standing in the elections. It should be noted that although Sharif is officially secular, he has good relations with Islamists in Pakistan, and is supported by Saudi Arabia, a nation which is not known for its tolerance of pluralism. In November his brother Shahbaz suggested that with Nawaz back in Pakistan, support for Musharraf and the PML-Q party would dissolve.

Another party which should be taking part in the upcoming elections is the pro-Musharraf Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). It is regarded as the third largest party nationally. In the past, MQM local offices and members of staff have been physically attacked. On December 25, a party worker was shot dead in an election office in Karachi, Sindh province.

On Monday, New Year's Eve, false rumors were circulated that Dr Farooq Sattar, a leading figure in the MQM party had been killed. After observing three days of mourning, the rumors placed the party under strain. A spokesman said: "Anti-state elements and miscreants spread the rumours and we were busy in damage control throughout the day." As a result, the MQM suspended their election campaign until news comes from the Election Commission about the date for voting.

The MQM is led by Altaf Hussain, who lives in exile in London. Shortly before Bhutto's assassination, he said that if Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif feared that the elections were going to be rigged, they should not participate. He claimed that he has no desire to undergo the corrupting influences of being a prime minister or president. Altaf Hussain has previously claimed that he lives in Britain because he fears assassination in Pakistan. He is a staunch supporter of Musharraf, even after the imposition of the state of emergency.

Immediately after Ms Bhutto was assassinated, President Musharraf expressed his condolences. Wisely, he has since made few comments to the media, preferring to take a back seat while the Election Commission decides when the national voting will begin. He has not publicly responded to the outrageous claims of Asif Ali Zardari, the unofficial leader of the PPP party, that he himself authorized Bhutto's assassination.

Despite their differences which emerged during the state of emergency - when Bhutto was twice placed under house arrest - an election with Benazir Bhutto taking part would have been in Musharraf's interests. The country would have been comparatively stable as she was an easily recognizable figure to the masses who do not live in big cities. She was photogenic and could make inspiring speeches, even though she rarely delivered on her promises.

The politicians who are now calling for elections to be held on January 8 are doing so as they have a vested interest, and are not doing so for the good of the nation. The PPP and also PML-N are interested in capitalizing on Benazir Bhutto's death being blamed by the ignorant upon Musharraf - even though it would not have been a good strategy. The only condemnations that have substance are that Benazir Bhutto was not given adequate security by Musharraf. It appears true that she was not given permission to have US or British bodyguards, but it is also true that even though she knew she was a target for assassination, she insisted on mixing with crowds.

If Benazir Bhutto had not pushed her head through the sunroof of her vehicle to bask in public adulation, she could possibly have survived the assassination attempt. At Liaqat Bagh park in Rawalpindi, where minutes before her assassination she had addressed 4,000 people, all visitors had been subjected to strict security checks before entering the park. Once outside of the park, Bhutto should have been more circumspect. That literally unguarded moment was to prove fatal.

Benazir Bhutto is dead, and no amount of moaning, rioting or indulging in conspiracy theories will bring her back. The current heads of both the PPP and the PML-N parties are not individuals who have spotless records. The evidence of Nawaz Sharif's cavalier approach to protocol is clear. Even though his criminal conviction prevents him from becoming an active parliamentarian, he is also someone who will do little to combat the bane of Pakistan - its Islamist elements whose influence has led to around 50 suicide attacks in Pakistan during 2007.

Zardari is by his own admission controversial. His son, a 19-year old undergraduate with a penchant for collecting Buffy the Vampire Slayer comics who cannot even become a member of parliament until at least September 2013 is hardly a credible leader. The longer that the elections are delayed, the threat of civil war seems less likely. It is certain that there will be activists who would wish for more riots to deliberately create instability. However, the longer that elections are delayed, then voters will have more time to assess what is really on offer by the "leaderless" parties.

Eventually, on Wednesday, the Election Commission announced that the date for the elections will be February 18. This will be a few weeks later than originally planned, but unless rioters choose to once again attack electoral offices, elections will go ahead. Over the next few weeks, politicians can offer the electorate some semblance of manifesto pledges. If all that some candidates can promise are conspiracy theories about Benazir Bhutto's murder, or the lame claim that their party will continue a family dynasty, they do not deserve to gain political influence.

The Future

The elections must take place soon, but after Musharraf's unwise implementation of a six-week state of emergency, campaigning time has been lost. In the populist and feudal society that comprises "modern" Pakistan, public rallies are important. During the state of emergency, political gatherings were banned. At present, rioting may delay the date of voting but it will not be good for the country, nor for democracy. When the leaders of two parties will not be able to become prime minister, there must be some time for the voting public to know their candidates.

Musharraf may be typecast by his opponents as a dictator, but he has so far made good on most of his promises, such as standing down as head of the army. Under his leadership as both president and head of the army, the government which ended on Thursday November 19 was the first to have completed its full five-year term in the 60 years that Pakistan has existed as a nation. While rival politicians employ crass emotional manipulation of Bhutto's death in the hope of gaining votes, Musharraf has remained as a consistent and shrewd politician.

Pakistan is not an easy nation to govern. It has four main languages spoken by its 180 million people - Urdu, Punjabi, Sindhi, and also Pashto which is spoken in the frontier agencies of NWFP. The majority of the population (97%) is Muslim, and Islamist politicians have exploited this as a unifying factor to gain power, while simultaneously attempting to undermine democracy and also the constitution. According to the constitution, Pakistani people should be free to worship as they please, but Islamist parties have historically supported unconstitutional blasphemy laws. In practice, these laws are used to persecute those who are not strict Sunni Muslims. Islamists have exploited the democratic process to introduce undemocratic sharia legislation.

Pakistan has thousands of madrassas where only the Koran is taught, but fewer real schools that provide a rounded education. In some regions of NWFP few girls are given an education, and in one district the literacy rate for women is only six percent.

The police force is rife with corruption. In rural areas, girls are traditionally given away in "vani" marriages to atone for male relatives' misdemeanors. In NWFP, these marriages are called swara and in Sindh province they are sometimes called sang-chati. The unofficial courts (called jirgas or panchayats) that order such marriages are led by village "elders", a perpetuation of a form of feudalism that treats girls and young women as chattels, rather than individual persons.

Honor killings and honor mutilations still take place in rural areas. In most rural communities, feudalism is the order of the day. For Pakistan to be able to truly embrace democracy, it must modernize the rural regions, implement good free education for all children, and ensure that the police are well paid and selected on their moral merit rather than by bribes or patronage. There are many challenges ahead, but democracy can never thrive in a country where education and justice are not available to all its citizens.

Until Pakistan's politicians can campaign on manifestos that seek to address these issues - issues that prevent the country from functioning as a modern democratic nation - the conditions that breed Islamist extremists will only continue into the future.

Adrian Morgan

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Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at January 3, 2008 8:39 PM

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