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December 27, 2007

Pakistan: Bhutto Killed - Are The Islamists Winning?

This article by Adrian Morgan (Giraldus Cambrensis of Western Resistance) appeared today in Family Security Matters and is reproduced with their permission.

With Benazir Bhutto Killed, What Next For Pakistan?

Shortly after 5 pm local time on December 27, Benazir Bhutto was killed in the city of Rawalpindi, northern Pakistan. She had been attending a rally in a city park for her Pakistan People's Party (PPP). As she was leaving the rally, and was in a car a suicide bomber detonated a device. One eyewitness report claimed that there were three shots before the bomb went off. The gunshots were fired by the suicide bomber. It has since been confirmed that 54-year old Ms Bhutto was shot in the neck before the explosion. Ms Bhutto suffered serious head injuries, which were initially said to be caused by pellets contained within the device. She was rushed to hospital, but was dead upon arrival. At least fifteen other people were killed in the explosion. Many of the injuries (below) were horrific.

Bhutto had her faults - she was accused of corruption during her two terms as prime minister from 1988 to 1990 and from 1993 to 1996. However, her death is seen as a massive blow to the hopes of both the people in Pakistan and also to Pakistan's allies in the West.

The President of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, had ordered a State of Emergency on Saturday November 3. This emergency was triggered by Islamist attacks in various parts of the country, but for the six weeks that it was in effect, the majority of the thousands of people arrested were journalists, civil rights campaigners and lawyers and NOT the Islamists who had threatened the country's stability. Musharraf had promised that democratic elections would go ahead on January 8, 2008. It is now doubtful if these will go ahead.

The PPP party is in crisis as Benazir Bhutto was the uncontested head of the party, even during her exile. The structure of the PPP means that though there are regional party leaders and during the last parliament there were representatives in the National Assembly, there is no clear successor. The party, founded by her late father, is run more on a system of personality. Recently Benazir Bhutto had revived an earlier party slogan "Food, Clothing and Shelter".

What is surprising is that such an attack could happen in Rawalpindi, which is a "garrison city" with a strong army presence. Rawalpindi is a twenty five minute drive away from Islamabad, the capital. Questions about the strategic motivation and identity of the suicide bomber will be asked for weeks to come. One thing is certain. The event was designed to create instability, and is already succeeding. Already there are reports of rioting in various districts. The army is on red alert, and Islamabad and Rawalpindi are currently subject to curfew orders. Sindh province, where Ms Bhutto had her political base, is expected to see mass protests.

On Christmas Eve, Benazir Bhutto had addressed a rally of 4,000 people in Lodhran, and had vowed to fight the Islamists who have created turmoil within the nation. She blamed Musharraf for the failure to control the Al Qaeda and Taliban extremists who are currently in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), adjoining the border with Afghanistan. These NWFP-based Islamists have been blamed for the many bomb attacks which have recently happened in Pakistan.

On Friday, December 21, a suicide bomber launched an attack upon a mosque in Charsadda district in NWFP, killing 57 people. The mosque was attended by Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, the interior minister in the last government. Friday prayers are regarded as especially important in Islam - what made the attack more shocking was that it happened at a service for Eid al-Adha - the remembrance of Abraham's order to sacrifice Isaac. Sherpao was not injured in last Friday's attack, but it appears that the bomb was aimed at him. Sherpao is a supporter of Musharraf and belongs to his PML-Q party. A newly-formed Islamist coalition called the Tehrik-i-Taliban claimed responsibility for the mosque bomb.

Benazir Bhutto had been in exile from Pakistan for eight years, mainly spending her time in Dubai and to a lesser extent in London. She returned in October this year after Musharraf had offered her immunity from prosecution on corruption charges. On the day she arrived back in Pakistan and was attending a rally in Karachi, Punjab province, on October 18, a suicide bomber attacked her procession. Shots had been fired before that attack, which killed 139 people, but Benazir Bhutto survived unhurt.

Bhutto had been advised to delay her return to Pakistan, as intelligence reports had stated that she was a target. After the October attacks, Bhutto had said: "I know exactly who wants to kill me. They are dignitaries of General Zia's former regime who are behind extremism and fanaticism."

General Zia ul-Haq was the Islamist dictator who had ruled Pakistan from 1977 to 1998. This dictator, assisted by Islamists particularly from the Jamaat-e-Islami party, had introduced draconian legislation against blasphemy in 1986 and in 1979 he introduced the infamous Hudood laws, which made adultery a capital offense and removed distinctions between rape and adultery. Zia had hanged Bhutto's father, former prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, on April 4, 1979.

Bhutto had hinted that those behind the Karachi attack had been connected to the ISI - the Inter Services Intelligence. This agency was behind the creation of the Taliban, and had also tried to mount an armed Sikh uprising in Punjab state in India. It is blamed for the disappearance of thousands of Pakistani civilians. Many of the leading figures in the ISI have been supporters of terrorism, such as former directors Lt Gen Mahmood Ahmed, Javed Nasir (who helped found the Taliban), and also Hamid Gul.

Hamid Gul, an admirer of bin Laden and the Taliban who supports Sharia law, has helped the Islamist opposition in Pakistan to mount demonstrations, and has been accused of funding the current Afghan insurgency. In January 2007, a captured Taliban fighter claimed the ISI still funds the Afghan Taliban.

Several ISI figures worshipped at the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad. This mosque had been frequented by ul-Haq while he was in power, and in January 2007 it began a series of deliberate threats against the stability of the nation - warning of suicide attacks against anyone who interfered with their policies of kidnapping, arson and disruption. Many of the madrassa students at the Lal Masjid came from NWFP. The mosque - whose leaders demanded Pakistan become an Islamist state - was stormed in July. It reopened shortly after, but a suicide attack outside the establishment caused it to be closed again. Khalid Khawaja, formerly a leading figure in the ISI and an admirer of Al Qaeda, was arrested in January this year for inciting members of the mosque.

Asim Bhutto - Benazir's cousin - mentioned on BBC News 24 that before her return to Pakistan she knew that there were elements in the army and the ISI who wanted to kill her. He mentioned that a group calling itself the "Brothers of Punjab" were rumored to have said they would kill her. She had informed Musharraf of this threat, Asim Bhutto said. This group, which I can no information about, is claimed by Ms Bhutto's cousin to have connections with the Pakistan administration.

A few hours after Bhutto was killed, Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attack. Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid, the main Al Qaeda leader in Afghanistan, said in a phone statement: "We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen."

It would be unwise at this time to point the finger at specific individuals or groups, but it is of concern that Musharraf used Islamist unrest to declare the State of Emergency but did not target Islamists in the mass arrests which followed. Additionally, he has done nothing to remove the Islamists who still exist in both the army and the ISI.

Benazir Bhutto, for all her faults, was widely seen as a modernizing figure in Pakistan. SInce the 1950s, Islamists and dictators have disrupted the nation's original democratic ideals. When Pakistan was founded in 1947, its leader for its first thirteen months was Mohammed Jinnah. At that time, Pakistan was a secular nation with a constitution similar to that still used in India. Jinnah had argued for Pakistan to be created when Britain's colonial rule came to an end. He wished for Muslims to have a safe haven, and made no attempts to enforceo Islamic law. Shortly after he died, the constitution was changed to state that Pakistan was an Islamic, rather than a secular, nation.

Benazir Bhutto's killing has been condemned by President Bush and other world leaders. The United States had tried to bring Benazir Bhutto into Pakistan's political process as she had popular support and made no bones about her intentions to combat the Islamist extremists. She had said that she would allow the Uniteid States to pursue Afghanistan Taliban from their sanctuaries in NWFP. Initially, it was suggested that a partnership of Musharraf as President and Bhutto as prime minister would have been a "dream ticket", offering Pakistan a chance of stability. When Musharraf imposed the State of Emergency and started to jail political rivals and sacking members of the judiciary, Bhutto became his political enemy.

Educated at Harvard and Oxford Universities and a former president of the Oxford Union, Benazir Bhutto was an intelligent, sophisticated and brave woman. She was the first woman to become head of an Islamic state. Though she has been accused in Pakistan, Britain, Switzerland and elsewhere of corruption, it should be mentioned that her husband Asif Ali Zardari (pictured) has also been accused of corruption, and was accused of ordering a murder in 1998. Though he was acquitted of this charge, Zardari is an individual who has attracted controversy.

The pair married in 1987 but it was not a romantic marriage - it was arranged by Benazir Bhutto's mother. Zardari was accused - but not convicted - of murdering Benazir's brother Murtaza. He was accused of drug running, a case that was never concluded. From November 4, 1996, Zardari spent eight and a half years in jail.

While Musharraf ruled virtually uncontested, another politician and former prime minister had been sent into exile. Nawaz Sharif had been prime minister when Perves Musharraf seized power in December 1999. He was forced to leave the country. Nawaz Sharif heads the Pakistan Muslim League - N faction (PML-N). He had tried to return earlier this year, but was immediately deported, even though Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudary had authorized his return. Eventually Nawaz returned, but was not allowed to stand in the January 8, 2008 elections, because of criminal charges which still remain against him. Nawaz Sharif visited the hospital in Rawalpindi shortly after the bomb attack, and saw the body of Benazir Bhutto. He announced a few hours later that his PML-N party will boycott the elections and will not be fielding any candidates in the upcoming elections. He has called for a general strike today.

Nawaz Sharif and Bhutto were not friends, but the State of Emergency brought them together on some political issues. On Christmas Day, Bhutto phoned Nawaz. She sought Nawaz' assistance to counter possible vote-rigging by Musharraf's PML- Q party in the upcoming elections. Both leaders had warned of street demonstrations should these elections become rigged in Musharraf's favor. Demonstrations are already happening in several Pakistani cities, with four civilians shot dead at the time of writing, and several reports of arson attacks.

With one leading party boycotting the imminent elections and another party without its figurehead, the only party with a large groundswell of support will be that of President Musharraf - the PML-Q party. An election held in these conditions will be neither democratic nor credible. It could also open the doors for Islamist parties to gain more power. In the last National Assembly, the MMA held 65 seats. This group comprises six Islamist parties, the largest of which is the Jamaat-e-Islami party.

The MMA support the Taliban and wishes for Sharia Law to be imposed - which of itself is undemocratic. Sami ul-Haq, who runs one of the MMA component parties, educated the leading members of the Taliban at his Haqqania madrassa in NWFP. His students included Mullah Omar. In March, the MMA introduced a draft Apostasy Law which would see anyone who converted out of Islam subject to the death penalty. Any increase of MMA power in the country would be catastrophic for democracy and human rights.

How the situation will develop over the next few days is not easy to predict. There is widespread anger. Musharraf will be damned by the public if he holds an election on January 8, and he will be damned if he suspends elections. World leaders have condemned the killing of Ms Bhutto. The future of Pakistan's democracy is genuinely under threat as a result of this attack.

The conditions that led to the declaration of a State of Emergency still remain. In Swat, a region of NWFP that was formerly a tourist destination likened to Pakistan's "Switzerland" an uprising continues. Since June of this year at least 300 militants have been killed in this conflict, yet it shows no signs of abating. The Taliban and Al Qaeda have bases in Waziristan and other agencies of NWFP, exploiting the porous mountainous border with Afghanistan. Since March 2006, the "Pakistan Taliban" have been in full control of both North and South Waziristan.

Most analysts have said that the nuclear weaponry that Pakistan possesses is still secure, with the army unlikely to allow such weapons to fall into unauthorized hands. Yet for the War on Terror Bhutto's death is a severe blow. Musharraf has already shown himself to have little regard for the freedom of the people of Pakistan, even though he has nominally supported the War on Terror. For the past five years, 70,000 soldiers have been posted in the troubled regions of NWFP, but these have done little to control the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Either there is a lack of will on the part of Pakistan's army commanders in the region, or they have no ability to control the insurgents. Islamists object to American troops being sent in to these regions, but if the Pakistan military establishment cannot control its own territory, certain questions must be asked. Is Musharraf genuinely committed to defeating Islamism, or is he merely exploiting the situation to gain American funds? Does Musharraf support genuine democracy? The signs so far do not bode well. Over the next few weeks, those questions will be answered.

Adrian Morgan

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Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at December 27, 2007 9:54 PM

Comments

Posted by: EnricoDandolo at December 27, 2007 10:38 PM

Posted by: Giraldus Cambrensis at December 28, 2007 7:42 AM

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