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February 9, 2007
Economics: Making Kids Worthless
Why don't the peoples of the West have children anymore? There are several factors, but the most important one has been the socialization of the economic role of children through the "Social Security" and welfare systems prevalent in our countries. Here is an accessible explanation: Making Kids Worthless: Social Security's Contribution to the Fertility Crisis
"Kinder haben die Leute immer -- People will always have children," assured Konrad Adenauer, the German Chancellor, in 1957. He was convinced that the future of the brave new pay-as-you-go social security system would not be undermined by demographic changes.Adenauer was as wrong as ever. Social security schemes around the developed world are facing a major crisis due to greater longevity, declining retirement ages and -- lo and behold -- below-replacement fertility rates.
What the good statesman did not realize is how the new system would affect the incentives of individuals to work, to save, and to have children. Labor force participation rates among older workers have declined dramatically since the 1960s throughout the Western world. The rules of social security benefits in most countries mean that working just does not pay off. In this way, pay-as-you-go social security schemes contribute to their own bankruptcy.[1]
But the disincentives to work are not the only problem with government social security schemes. Demographic change too is a result of those systems, because compulsory social security penalizes parenthood and childbearing. Unfortunately, low fertility rates do not merely hasten the insolvency of public pay-as-you-go schemes, but lack of offspring also implies the decline of centuries-old nations.[...]
(Found in Mark Steyn's website.)
Posted by Ruy Diaz at February 9, 2007 5:44 PM
Comments
I love coming across ideas that are both sensible and novel. I have always assumed that low birth rates were an inevitable bi-product of prosperous civilization. I knew that America had a higher birth rate but I was always informed that it was due to higher religiosity and a higher immigrant rate from nations with higher birthrates. I was under the impression that once people became rich there was suddenly little incentive to have large families since farm labor was of less financial value and the expense of children (education, health, clothing, etc.) were higher. This is an interesting alternative hypothesis. America does have less of a social security infrastructure so there would seem to be a better incentive to have kids.
I would still need to see more data regarding the correlation of social systems for the aged and reduced fertility; since the decline in fertility seems to be a wide spread phenomenon relative to prosperity. It should be fairly clear in the stats that the amount of social security adopted by a nation compared to its economic development would support this hypothesis if it is true. I hope someone pursues this. Though it could be difficult for a remedy to be enacted. Are people really going to want to give up their secure old age in order to be coerced into having more kids? I have also heard it reported that when asked how many kids they would have liked to have had, Western populations would have had no population decline if their wishes had been realized. It seems that it is not a lack of desire for big families that keeps the rate down.
Posted by: Chuck the Lucky
at February 9, 2007 9:13 PM
I must admit though that the data in the article linked to is a good start.
Posted by: Chuck the Lucky
at February 9, 2007 9:15 PM
It appears that there is definitely merit behind the comments in the article if the data is correct. Add to this reason the following;
1 The rise of feminism in the 1960s that led many women to turn away from the traditional desire to mother.
2 The ease in obtaining abortion in western society.(would there be as much of a birth rate problem if even half of the abortions over the last 30 years could be magically reversed)
3 The change in western society values that led adults in our society to expend all their energies and efforts to chasing down the "Golden Ring" of financial prosperity, material gain and economic success and comfort, rather than the "old fashioned" idea of raising a family.
So while the article does point to one reason for this situation, it is not the only reason. It is just one of the nails in western societies coffin. Do we have the energy, or the will to try to change that? It will be a struggle, but if we want our children to survive under freedom we better pray God helps us to wake up sooner rather than later.
Posted by: infidel59
at February 9, 2007 11:15 PM
FINALLY! WE listen to all these stupid arguements about needing cheap foreign labor because of the "aging population", after years of being subjected to all the whining about the dangers of "population growth", "sustainability","suburban sprawl" etc. out the other side of their mouths. They just don't get it, that it takes two incomes for a couple to survive, unless they have figured out how to milk teh welfare system and are comfortable with that, any responsible person wants to have a decent job, decent benefits, and a decent place to live before planning on having kids. It's as easy as get a job, right? If you live more than fifteen minutes from the job you are a lot less likely to be hired, and they don't allow businesses to locate in small towns because those who don't need a job decide the business doesn't fit their image of what the community should be. Outsourcing all the jobs to foreign countries, and bringing foreigners in here to do the jobs that can be outsourced, is just plain stupid. And that, nota bortion, gay rights, OR IRAQ, is why republicans got the boot in November, us younger people have been let down, we've been sold out. And the only way to effect change is to keep voting out incumbants regardless of party until they get the point. It's not the economy, it's making us slaves in our own land where we'll have to build more bridges, so we have some place to sleep under.
Posted by: Catawhumpus
at February 10, 2007 12:55 AM
Infidel59;
The things you mention are true, but they are made far easier by Social Security and the Welfare State. Absent the Welfare State, you may wish to pursue wealth and forgo children, but you better be darn sure you succeed, or else you'll be alone and poor in your final years.
Catawhumpus;
You are very perceptive about the pursuit of image in some communities. Things like "open space" laws and the like have the effect of making life more expensive for people wishing to raise children.
Posted by: Ruy Diaz
at February 10, 2007 1:23 PM
I followed the link to read the entire article. I think it's pretty clear that there is a causal link between soicial security and low birth rates. However it's not clear to me that low birth rates are as big of a problem as this author claims. Western countries certainly compare favourably with those countries that do have high birth rates and no social security. We do have an aging population that is burdening our economies but people are starting to retire later to help pay for this. I think eventually the problem of aged dependant populations will be "solved" by euthanasia! It will be argued that dependancy is undignified and the elderly will be encouraged to die with dignity! This will be the society we become if we continue to push for increasing wealth above other considerations. The big question is whether we want to be materially rich and morally poor or be like the third world and put family values before material wealth. I hope there is a middle way because I don't see that increasing our birth rates as a result of having third world standards of welfare is the answer!
Posted by: keypointist
at February 10, 2007 2:08 PM
Yes I think euthanisia at least as far as depriving people of needed services in the public healthcare system, is already being practiced, if they can kill the unborn, why not those who are past their percieved "usefulness to society", then you may as well include those who are a "nuisance" by being troublesome, putting up or commenting on websites like this, because they would come after those who believe in rights and freedoms as dangerous subversives. I believe China (our "strategic trade partner") is practicing this right now. Sure our economy may be hitched to theirs, but as Thomas Jefferson warned about slavery in America, we will pay an awful price for it someday, we are washing our hands in blood everytime we go to the store and buy products made in China, either we will project our values onto them, or they will project their system on us. I have to admire my ancestors who had faith in the future, maybe that is teh bottom line, true our media empire is built on bad news and scary threats, but we are losing faith in our country, our leaders, and the world at large, it does not seem a fit place to bring children into, which may be why those who breed the most tend to be the careless or fanatical who believe their faith will rule the world one day. We need another Reagan, we need someone who is willing to stand up for what is right, and give us faith, and a clear vision and conscience. It's fascinating to see his legacy is a whole different thing in the parts of Europe he helped liberate, than what he has here in the USA. The torch of freedom may well be passing from the USA into their hands, I hope they treasure and preserve it better than was done here.
Posted by: Catawhumpus
at February 12, 2007 11:29 AM
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