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October 9, 2006

Somalia: Islamists Edge Towards Holy War With Ethiopia

Back on July 21 the Islamists of Somalia were threatening a "Holy War" against Ethiopia. The Islamists had conquered Mogadishu, the capital, on June 5 after being at war since February with warlords, who had governed the city since 1991, when the dictator, Mohammed Siad Barre, was deposed. Many of the warlords were close to the UN-approved transitional government, based in Baidoa, and some even had cabinet positions within this government.

The transitional government, founded in 2004 and headed by President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi, has been in a state of near-conflict with the Islamists. Making matters worse, the Islamists had on June 24 placed Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys as head of its ruling body, the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts.

Aweys, who was one of the founders of the terror group Al-Ittihad al-Islami, which last year was placed by Britain on a list of banned groups. Aweys is believed by many, including the United States, to being linked to Al Qaeda, a claim he denies. Aweys has a personal grudge against the leader of the "transitional government as president Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed had driven out Al-Ittihad al-Islami from its base in Puntland, northern Somalia, in the 1990s.

Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed has strong links with Ethiopia, and there have been several reports that Ethiopian troops had crossed over the border into SOmalia, to bolster up the transitional government against attempts by the Islamists to take total power. Both the transitional government and the Ethiopian government have denied these claims, though the Ethiopians admit giving uniforms to government militiamen, and now concede that they have sent advisers to Baidoa.

The situation in July was becoming near-critical, with the head of the Union of Islamic Courts, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, calling for "Holy War" against Ethiopia. The situation was then tense, and talks between the Islamists and government, brokered by the Arab League in Khartoum, were fraught. DIplomacy prevailed, and the Islamists continued on their campaign to control as many parts of Somalia as they could.

In September, the transitional government made a request to the African Union to send in peacekeeping troops. This was agreed.

Though the Islamists objected to the transitional government gaining any assistance from Ethiopia, on July 6, a video revealed the presence of Arab Islamists in the ranks of Islamist militias. Last month, Sheikh Hassan Turki said that the interim government had "called foreigners....and we are getting help from our Muslim brothers to train us." Though not mentioned by name, Muslim mercenaries were believed to be coming from Pakistan and Yemen, but particularly from Eritrea. Eritrea is Ethiopia's neighbour, and the two countries have no political goodwill for each other.

Now the situation between Somalia and Ethiopia is once again teetering on the edge of war. Following the invasion of the southern port of Kismayo by the Islamists on September 25, witnesses claimed on the following day that about 50 Ethiopian army trucks were seen in Bardaale, a town between Kismayo and Mogadishu. This town is the only one in the southern region not to have fallen to the Islamists. It was believed that Ethiopian troops were planning to block the route between the port and the capital.

Sheik Yusuf Indahaadd, national security chairman for the Islamists, said then: "We call on the international community to urge Ethiopia to withdraw its troops from Somalia. If that doesn't happen the consequences of insecurity created by Ethiopia will spread to neighboring countries and to East Africa as a whole."

On Thursday September 28 the transitional government's foreign minister, Ismael Mohamoud Hurreh, told the UN that if the Union of Islamic Courts persisted in its "aggressive policies of attacks and territorial expansion", the federal government could not continue with peace talks in Khartoum. He said that invasions of Jowhar, Balad and Kismayo were "in flagrant violation of the Khartoum peace agreement." At the same time, an attempt to retake Kismayo, led by the 300 members of the Juba Valley Alliance, laid down their arms and surrendered to the Islamists.

Despite this, protests from citizens in Kismayo against the Islamists continued. On September 28, Islamists opened fire on protesters, and arrested seven women. The demonstrators, mostly women and children, had tried to use road blockades to prevent the Islamists from driving their "battelewagons" through the town. At the same time, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys warned that: "We will go back to rule by militias. Rule by tribal warlords is a mistaken policy. We are still in an initial phase of reorganisation."

In the north of Somalia, a semi-autonomous enclave called Somaliland has been in existence since 1991. This region, despite attempts since last year by Islamists to infiltrate it, has remained fairly peaceful and prosperous, while the rest of Somalia was mired in factional war between warlords. But at the end of September there were fears that Somaliland could also fall to the Islamists, with the possible compliance of its population. Somaliland has never been officially recognized by the international community.

SImilarly, Puntland in the north remains as an autonomous region, controlled by militia of President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, but was expressing fears of being "given away" to the Islamists by its own inhabitants.

On September 28, according to AKI, Reporters Sans Frontieres, VOA News, South Africa's Mail & Guardian, the Radio station Horn-Afrik Radio was closed down, and three journalists in Kismayo, were arrested by Islamists. The reason for the radio station being closed was explained by the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). The radio station had reported on the protests in Kismayo against the Islamists' occupation of the port, and had been critical of the UIC.

Reuters reported on more protests in Kismayo. The reason for these demonstrations was a reaction to the UIC decision to ban the use of Khat, a leaf-based stimulant, which is used throughout the Horn of Africa. One local khat trader said: "If they continue interfering with our khat trade we will create a big problem for them. Khat is our life, if they stop it, we better die."

In Baidoa on the same day (Sept 28), arrests were made of two people, believed to have been involved in an assassination attempt against President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed. In this attack, a double carbomb killed eight people outside the parliament building in Baidoa on September 18. Three more injured people died later in the day, bringing the death toll to 11.

Explosives were found in the house of one of the two arrested suspects, claimed the interior minister, Hussein Mohamed Farah Aideed. The president's brother had been killed in the blasts, and following the attack, six suspects had been killed in a firefight with police. Yusuf blamed Al Qaeda for the attack.

On September 29, the Islamists announced the formation of an Islamic "army". Sheik Mukhtar Robow, deputy chief security officer at the UIC, said: "This is a unified Islamic Force. We will be more organized than before."

On the same day, the BBC reported that Prime MInister Ali Mohamed Gedi of the transitional government announced that if the Islamists decided to attack the government, their allies from Kenya and Ethiopia would assist them. He said: "The security of Somalia is linked with the security of neighbouring countries. Ethiopian troops, as well as Kenyan troops, are on alert, if any external or internal forces try to attack the Transitional Federal Government and its temporary seat in Baidoa."

On October 3, the South African Independent Online reported that Islamists had taken control of two more southern towns - Af Madow, 75 miles west of Kismayo, and Bu'ale, 131 miles north of the port. Hassan Turki led the Islamists who invaded Af Madow, and he said that he believed a regional peace-keeping force would enter the country through the region.

On Thursday, October 5, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed of the UIC said that Ethiopian troops were shelling the town of Beledweyne, which was in the hands of the Islamists. Sheikh Ahmed said: "Our forces are on high alert because yesterday [Wednesday] Ethiopian soldiers started shelling with mortars and artillery around our bases near Beledweyne. We are telling the world that Ethiopian forces are violating our territory. It has been sending thousands of troops to Somalia for the last three days."

Beledweyne lies only 19 miles from the Ethiopian border, and is 140 miles north of Mogadishu, the capital. Ethiopian foreign ministry spokesperson Solomon Abebe said: "These reports are unfounded and categorically false. This is propaganda they are always using, we are not attacking Beledweyne or any other town in Somalia."

On the same day, according to the BBC, the UIC demanded that Somaliland release a Muslim cleric, Sheikh Mohamed Ismail. There were other Islamist clerics in prison in Somaliland, but Ismail was the most influential, with popularity in Burao, the second largest city in the autonomous region.

On October 4, Kenya announced that it was increasing its security in the north, following the Islamists' control of towns near the border. The UN envoy to Somalia, Francois Fall was then on the second day of a week-long tour of the Horn of Africa. He was in Ethiopia on Thursday, and said: "One of the points of my mission is to ease tensions in the region because the Somali crisis has regional repercussions."

On Thursday, a demonstration, organized by the Islamists, protested against foreign peacekeepers in the region. Mohammed Wali Sheik Ahmed, an Islamist official in the port, said: "The time for ambiguity and hypocrisy has ended. By God, we will wage a holy war against our enemies."

At the same time, Somaliland again seemed to be under threat from within, from Islamists residing in the region. According to Bashir Goth, a local news editor, the Islamists had the autonomous semi-nation in a financial grip. Their influence was said to be in all aspects of the economy. He said: "As far as I know there are several members of UIC who used to be members of the Al Ittihad." Sheikh Warsame, spiritual leader of the terror group, which he founded in 1984, is a Saudi-educated cleric from Buroa in Somaliland. While the Islamists in Mogadishu threatened Somaliland, it was feared that followers of Warsame would assist in a takeover of the region.

Earlier today, according to Asian Age, VOA News, the Independent Online, AFROL, Lebanon Daily Star, CNN, Sudan Tribune and Washington Post a hilltop town, close to Baidoa, the seat of the transitional government, was captured back from the Islamists. The re-taking of Buur Hakaba was confirmed by Islamists and the government.

The first defeat since June 5 has caused the Islamists to now be once again declaring open war against Ethiopia. According to the Independent, they have blamed the invasion of the town as a result of Ethiopian involvement.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, head of the UIC, said in Mogadishu: "Ethiopian troops have intentionally invaded our land. I urge all the Somali people to wage holy war against the Ethiopians." His calls for war have been echoed by the Islamist's security chief, Sheikh Yusuf Indahaadde, who said 35,000 Ethiopians have invaded. He said: "This is a declaration of war. We will not wait any more. We will defend the integrity of our land."

According to the Telegraph, about 750 Ethiopian troops had mounted the takeover of Buur Hakaba. Not a shot was fired in the operation.

Sheikh Sharif Ahmed said in reponse: "Starting from today, we have declared jihad against Ethiopia. Heavily-armed Ethiopian troops have invaded Somalia. They have captured Buur Hakaba. History shows that Somalis always win when they are attacked from outside. We will counter them soon. I urge all the Somali people to wage holy war against the Ethiopians."

He said that Ethiopia, a nation viewed by many Somalis as Christian (despite being 50/50 Muslim-Christian), had ordered 65,000 troops to enter Ethiopia.

There are fears that an Islamist-run Somalia will begin to export terrorism abroad, in the way that Afghanistan under the Taliban sponsored and sheltered Al Qaeda. These fears were made more real by an announcement made at the weekend, states AFROL.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Colonel Yousuf Mohammed Siyad, Head of the UIC's Security Apparatus, speaking on Saturday evening to members of the Somali community in Dubai, said that their conquering of large swathes of Somalia was "a gift from God." More worrying, they claimed that once they had Somalia under their control, they intended to export their message worldwide.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said: "They (the transitional federal government) want to rule the country by a man-made constitution and we want to rule the country by the Allah's holy book. We are not going to compromise on applying God's rule."

Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at October 9, 2006 11:56 PM

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