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July 20, 2006

Indonesia: Report Suggests Islamist Group May Turn To Kidnappings

Noordin TopThe Islamist group Jemaah Islamiyah has not carried out a major bombing attack since October 1 last year, when three suicide bombers set off bombs in Bali, killing 26 people. Before that, they had attacked Bali on 12 October, 2002, killing 202 people, they bombed the Australian Embassy in Jakarta on 9 September 2004, killing 11, and they bombed the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta on 5 August 2003, killing 12 people.

Their two most active organisers were Azahari bin Husin and Noordin Mohamed Top. On November 9, 2005, at his hideout near Malang on the island of Java, Malaysian-born Azahari was shot dead in a gun battle, and Noordin Top (pictured) narrowly escaped capture, when his hideout at Binangu village near Wonosobo, Central Java, was raided on 29 April this year.

With Top currently on the run, the group is not seen as powerful as it had been previously. Top was the main financier, and dealt with logistics. He also had substantial links with other Islamist factions in southeast Asia, including Darul Islam. Dr Sidney Jones of the International Crisis Group has said that Top is suffering from a loss of funds, and also two of his couriers, Jabir and Abdul Hadi, were killed in the Wanosobo raid.

In this current climate, it has been suggested that the group will adopt a new strategy, kidnapping. Jane's Foreign Reports published a report on 14 July, entitled: "Indonesia: waiting for the next bomb". However, access to Jane's material requires a paid subscription.

Canada's Canoe News reports on the thesis suggested by Jane's. Christian Le Miere, JFR's Asia Pacific editor states that JI's desire to launch a bombing in 2006 is "indisputable", but notes; "the size and target of an attack will be limited."

In a press release, Le Miere stated: "While suicide pedestrian attacks on commonly frequented tourist or commercial areas are relatively simply to undertake, the resources and planning required...may prove too complex for JI at the moment."

"Cost-effective tactics which achieve widespread publicity, such as kidnapping foreigners and broadcasting images of the hostages over the Internet, are therefore a further, albeit less likely, possibility."

"The ease with which JI has carried out attacks in the past shows that another 'annual bombing' is a real possibility. There is also pressure on JI to maintain the rhythmic tempo that previous attacks have created."

With the release from prison of Jemaah Islamiyah's "spiritual leader" Abu Bakar Bashir on June 13, Indonesia is under international pressure, particularly from Australia to keep its militants under surveillance.

Bashir was jailed for giving his permission to the 2002 Bali attacks, in which 88 Australian tourists were amongst the dead.

There is currently uncertainty about who now remains "in charge" of Jemaah Islamiyah. In March, Colonel Petrus Reinhard Golose, from Indonesia's counterterrism task force announced that Abu Dujana (real name Ainal Bahri) had assumed the leadership, but there are doubts about this. Abu Dujana was formerly the secretary of the JI "emir" Abu Rusdan. Rusdan was released from jail in January this year. Whether he now has influence within the group is unknown.

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Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at July 20, 2006 10:38 AM

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