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July 16, 2006

Thailand: Pacifying A Muslim Neighbor During A Crisis

Thaksin Shinawatra was the officially elected prime minister of Thailand, representing the Thai Rak Thai party, but following nationwide protests, accusing him of corruption, he ordered an election on April 2, three years before schedule. The opposition boycotted the election, leaving 40 seats in parliament unfilled. Thaksin stepped down on April 4, saying he was "taking a break" from politics. The April 2 election was declared null and void by the Constitution Court and the next proper election will not be held until October 15.

On May 23 Thaksin Shinawatra returned to take part in the political process, after General Chidchai, his deputy in the TRT party who had become the "caretaker" president, was being accused of spending more time shopping, golfing and travelling abroad than coping with affairs of state. On May 22, the Supreme Administrative Court agreed to hear a proposal, mounted by a group of lawyers, that accused Thaksin of dereliction of official duties.

On Thursday, 13 July, the Constitution Court announced that it will take on a case, which accuses both Thaksin's party and its main rival, the Democrat Party, of electoral fraud. Associated Press via Forbes notes that the parties could be dissolved if the ruling goes against them.

Last month, Thaksin resumed his radio chat-show, after not being on air for four months, and soon, this move caused his opponents to gripe, as he began making accusations against an unnamed individual of "plots" against him.

Recently there have been demonstrations again (pictured), criticising Thaksin and his methods. Though only a caretaker now, he is holding himself up as the sole defender of democracy, and he has been attempting to woo other countries, presenting his interpretations of recent events. The demonstrations have been held by the PAD, People's Alliance for Democracy. An open letter, sent to all embassies in Thailand on Friday to state their position, can be found here.

The PAD open letter was in response to the letters sent by Thaksin to various world leaders, in which he whined about the conspiracies against him, and misrepresented the situation. This is a section from his letter to President Bush: "There has been a threat to democracy in Thailand since early this year. Key democratic institutions, such as elections and the observance of Constitutional limitations on government, have been repeatedly undermined by interests that depend on creating chaos and mounting street demonstrations in Bangkok as a means to acquire political power that they cannot gain through winning elections."

"Having failed to provoke violence and disorder, my opponents are now attempting various extra-Constitutional tactics to co-opt the will of the people. If our democratic institutions prove strong over the next several months, those too will be unsuccessful."

What appears to be of most concern here to WR is that while there is an ongoing insurgency going in in the southern Muslim provinces, which has several leading insurgents travelling freely across the border to Muslim Malaysia, Thaksin is now wooing Malaysia's leaders, and is attempting to distort or suppress the seriousness of the situation.

Narathiwat adjoins the Malaysian state of Kelantan, the last stronghold of the extreme Islamist party of PAS. Last year, on August 31, a group of 131 Thais, several of these being suspected insurgents, fled across the border, hoping to seek refuge in Kelantan state. The majority of these refugees, who have dual Thai and Malaysian nationality, are now in a detention center in Terengganu state in Malaysia. The presence of the 131 refugees caused diplomatic relations to deteriorate between Thailand and Malaysia.

In December, we reported that a diplomatic solution had been agreed at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, held in Korea. It was announced that in both countries' interests, Malaysia would hand back the 131 refugees. In practice, only one of these individuals, assumed by the Malaysians to be an insurgent, was handed back to Thailand later that month.

The disinformation campaign regarding the refugees was compounded in January, when Malaysia's then-law minister, Radzi Sheikh Ahmad, announced: "All have been sent back. Both sides are very happy." Malaysian Attorney-General Gani Patail was forced to issue a hasty retraction of the minister's statement.

On Thursday, 13 July, Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Najib Tun Razak met Thaksin at his office in Thailand's Government House, in Bangkok. After the meeting, Najib told Bernama News agency that the issue of people claiming simultaneously to be Thai and Malaysians was discussed. Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Chidchai Vanasatidya (Wannasathit) and the Malaysian ambassador to Thailand Shaarani Ibrahim were present.

Najib said that Thailand had introduced a "smart-card" system to people living in the southern Thai provinces aligning the border, which incorporates fingerprint details: "With this data, we can confirm the dual citizenship. There may be a problem in confirming the dual citizenship through names as they differ in Thailand and Malaysia."

There are an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 who hold dual nationality status.

He said: "This is an old issue but there has never been a solution. When we match the latest data held by the two countries, there is no reason the matter cannot be resolved."

Chidchai said that he had asked for Malaysia to help find out where the insurgents in the southern Thai provinces were getting their fanancing from, and had also asked if there were any Thai separatist leaders hiding in Malaysia. He also said that that Malaysia claimed that four or five insurgent leaders were believed to be in hiding in the Middle East, but did not name which country. He said that the issue of the 130 refugees had not been brought up.

The name of Masae Useng was specifically mentioned. We reported on June 17 that an intelligence source in Thailand had claimed that Masae Useng had ordered the insurgent group known as Permador to carry out the mass-bombings which occurred on June 15 and for two subsequent days. Masae Useng is a major figure in the insurgent group Barisan Revolusi Nasional. Najib had claimed that Malaysian authorities had tried in vain to find him, but now assumed he was in the Middle East.

The name of Sapaeing Bazo, who does appear to be in Malaysia, was not mentioned. As we wrote on Wednesday: "A security source has claimed that Sapaeing Bazo, leader of the insurgent grop Barisan Revolusi Nasional Coordinate has now left Thailand, and is being protected by high-level authorities in "another country". This country is almost certainly Malaysia. We reported on June 19 that Sapaeing Bazo was currently a fugitive, with a bounty of 10 million baht ($256,227 US) upon his head, hiding across the border in Malaysia.The same source said that main leaders of the Pattani United Liberation Organisation and the Muhajideen Islam Pattani insurgent factions are also being protected in this "country". "

Najib was in Thailand for the start of the 46th meeting of the General Border Committee (GBC) on Friday. TNA English News reported that one of the results of the Malaysia/Thailand talks was an agreement to use the GBC as a forum for discussing problems, rather than making claims through the media.

Thai Defence Minister General Thammarak Isarangura Na Ayutthaya said: "We agreed that whenever bad, groundless, and confusing news stories are presented through the media, we will use the committee (GBC) to clarify facts. This will make our co-operation easier. If we resort to the usual bureaucratic channels, it may be too late." The next GBC meeting will take place in May next year, and will be hosted by Malaysia.

It does not seem that the measures discussed above will achieve much to halt the insurgency. Thaksin Shinawatra is a poor leader in a time of crisis, and during an armed insurgency, strong leadership is essential. He recently brought in the Muslim army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin to head the command of operations in the southern Muslim provinces. This move was made to replace General Chidchai Vanasatidya/Wannasathit.

Sonthi was only appointed to be in charge of dealing with the insurgency on June 19, but now, according to The Nation, it appears that even his post as commander-in-cief of the army is being placed in doubt by Thaksin.

Rumors in the military are suggesting that Sonthi's assistant, General Pornchai Kranlert, will be given his job in a military reshuffle in October. Apparently Sonthi fell out of favor in March, when he decided not to support the government in its proposal to use military force to quell the street protests which eventually led to Thaksin temporarily "stepping down" on April 4.

It seems that for Thaksin, the situation in the south is of less importance than his own power. Sonthi, who could speak Yari, the Malay dialect used in the South, was not given control of the southern operations because of his potential to quell the unrest. It appears that he was given his post to get him out of the way.

It is suggested that in the October military reshuffle, Sonthi may be given the role of supreme commander, a mere ceremonial role. Currently this post is in the hands of General Ruengroj Masaranont, who is retiring.

Thaksin's personal failings and devious scheming have already caused a major political crisis in Thailand, far away from the troubles which appear to be intensifying in the south. The diplomacy with Malaysia is just that, diplomacy. It will not stop the cross-border problems, and while there is weakness and instability in the rest of Thailand, the insurgents, who have killed 1,300 people since January 2004, will push to further destabilise the southern provinces.

There will not be an election until October. Unrest is brewing, and Thaksin appears ready to use the army to suppress citizens who are protesting at his abuses of democracy. His personal vanity and manipulations are transparent. but the army is there to protect the nation, as represented by the king, not to protect a corrupt despot. A commentator recently compared politicians in Thailand to jockeys. The army is the horse, and jockeys may come and go, but the racehorse is still owned by the king.

Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at July 16, 2006 2:31 AM

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