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April 20, 2006
Iran Nuclear Crisis: Islamist Fantasies And Harsh Realities
Recently, the situation of Iran's nuclear issue, combined with President Ahmadinejad's almost insane threats against Israel seem to be leading to an escalation of what is becoming a situation more worrying than the factors which led three years ago to the invasion of Iraq. The situation is similar to the Bay of Pigs issue in the time of Kennedy and Kruschev.
Yesterday, according to XinhuaNet, Condoleeza Rice said in Chicago that a diplomatic solution could be achieved. Speaking to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, she said that the UN Security Council had various options to hand. However, she also stated that should diplomacy fail, the United States could, either alone or in a coalition with others, take pro-active measures to end Iran's nuclear program.
"The right to self-defense does not necessarily require a UN Security Council resolution...It is important to note that the (U.S.) president doesn't take any options off the table," she said.
Meanwhile, according to India Express, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov called on Iran to halt its enrichment of uranium. Itar-Tass news agency reported that Lavrov had spent all of Tuesday in talks with the five permanent Security Council members, as well as Germany.
"Iran must heed the call to stop work linked to uranium enrichment...All participants in the meeting agreed that urgent and constructive steps are demanded of Iran in response to the decision of the board of the IAEA". he said. Lavrov noted that no final agreement had been reached on how to defuse the situation.
Jacques Chirac announced that it was not too late for Iran to stop the nuclear programme. Jack Straw, the UK's foreign secretary, said he doubted if Iran would comply with UNSC demands to halt uranium enrichment by the end of the month. He tried to reassure that there would be little likelihood of military action.
Saudi Arabia said it did not want to become embroiled in disagreements with Iran, and stated Riyadh was not trying to acquire nuclear weaponry.
Iranian Intransigence
Just over a week ago, on April 11, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shocked the world by announcing that "Iran has joined the group of countries which have nuclear technology." He declared that his engineers had enriched uranium to the level needed to create nuclear fuel, though so far only on a "laboratory scale".
It is perhaps no coincidence that Ahmadinejad announced his nation's uninvited entry to the "nuclear club" on April 11th, for this date is the date celebrated as the birthday of the prophet Mohammed. Earlier in the month, he had been responding to growing rumours of a pre-emptive strike by the US with a massive testing of new missiles and weaponry, in an exercise entitled the Holy Prophet.
The following day it was announced that Iran had plans to start construction of a 3,000-centrifuge plant this autumn. Currently it has 164 enrichment centrifuges. Mohammad Saeedi, the country's deputy nuclear chief announced that, following the 3,000 centrifuge plant, construction would then begin work on a plant comprising 54,000 centrifuges in a cavernous bunker in Natanz.
Though it could be five or six years before Iran has an actual nuclear weapon, British and Israeli officials said that within nine months to a year, Iran could gain the knowledge to make fissile material.
An Israeli official said: "There is a need to create a split within the leadership and to ensure that the supreme leader decides to change course. At the moment Iran is not paying any price and those within the regime calling for a return to suspension look like idiots."
Mohammed ElBareidi, the chief international nuclear inspector, arrived in Iran on April 12, according to the Telegraph and some of the boasts appear to have been made either to impress ElBareidi, or to capitalise on his presence, giving their claims some "validity".
"Annihilation" of Israel
On Friday, April 14 Ahmadinejad returned to a theme which had earlier caused alarm to the international community, the threats of annihilation of Israel.
The first of Ahmadinejad's tirades against Israel came on Wednesday October 26 when he had only been in power for just over two months. He called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" and said a new wave of Palestinian attacks will destroy the Jewish state. The statements were made at a conference called "A World Without Zionism".
A mere six days previously his government had also announced a ban on all cinema films which promoted "arrogant powers, the propaganda name for the US.
On October 28, or Al Quds (Jerusalem) Day, set up in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini to celebrate hatred for Israel, Ahmadinejad walked among crowds calling for "Death to Israel" and "Death to America". Iranian television carried cartoons for children, which featured suicide bombers as heroes, and depicted Israelis as red-eyed thugs, murdering "innocent Palestinians".
After the Al-Qaeda bombing of three hotels in Amman, Jordan on November 9, Hamid Reza Asefi, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said: "The explosions in Jordan are a suspicious matter. Most probably the Zionist regime (Israel) was behind them".
On December 14, Ahmadinejad belittled the holocaust, a repetitions of comments he had made on December 8, where he had said to the OIC meeting in Mecca: "Some European countries insist on saying that Hitler killed millions of innocent Jews in furnaces. Although we don't accept this claim..."
On December 14, in a televised speech, he told supporters in Sistan-Baluchestan that the West "fabricated a myth under the name 'Massacre of the Jews,' and they hold it higher than God himself, religion itself and the prophets themselves".
On January 21, Sha'ul Mofaz, Israel's defense minister, announced that Iran had given $10 million to anti-Israeli terrorist group Islamic Jihad during 2005, double the amount donated in 2004.
So Ahmadinejad's speech last Friday was a further confirmation that Iran is gearing itself up for a game of brinkmanship. Goading and threatening Israel, almost pushing the United States to defend its ally and friend in the Middle East. He was opening a conference in Tehran to support the Palestinian cause, and said that Israel was a "rotten, dried tree" and announced that it would be annihilated by "one storm".
It has been taken that this recent speech was a declaration that his country was prepared to use nuclear weapons in an "Armageddon scenario" against Israel.
Once again, he denied the Holocaust. "If such a disaster is true, why should the people of this region pay the price? Why does the Palestinian nation have to be suppressed and have its land occupied?" Ominously, he stated that the land of "Palestine" would "be freed soon."
Further posturing at the conference was provided by General Yahya Rahim Safavi who warned the US: "You can start a war but it won't be you who finishes it."
Jewish Exponent reported after the speech the opinions of Israeli military experts, who claimed that Israel could attack Iran, without the back-up of the US or other nations, though the task would be risky.
There is no doubt that Iran is threatening Israel, through funding terror operations against it, as per the Islamic Jihad suicide-attack on Tel Aviv on Monday April 17. Monday's attack killed nine. Islamic Jihad has threatened that there will be 70 more suicide attacks to follow.
But why should a president indulge in such an apparently insane desire to create international chaos? Ahmadinejad has a strongly-held interest in implementing chaos, and his reasons are as much religious as they are political.
Ahmadinejad is not the most inspiring politician, and was one of the students who kidnapped 52 US Embassy staff in 1979. He is not a dynamic character. He was born into a blacksmith's family in Garmsar, near Tehran, on 28 October, 1956, one of seven children. Though a student radical, connected to the Office for Strengthening Unity, Ahmadinejad's real speciality was in controlling traffic.
He graduated from the University of Science and Technology in Tehran, where he gained a PhD in traffic and transport. He had been a civil engineer and also a lecturer at the same university he graduated from. In May 3, 2003, he had been elected mayor of Tehran, where he gained a reputation as an opponent of reform. But there is a singular power behind Ahmadinejad's political throne, a power which is well accustomed to the manipulations of a theocratic state.
Messianic Fantasies

The man pictured above is a person who may be more responsible for the recent escalations of Ahmadinejad's rhetoric and threats against Israel than any other. His name is Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi.
As we reported in December, this cleric has been exceedingly influential on the development of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political career.
Born in 1934, Ayatollah Mesba-Yazdi became a student of Ayatollah Khomeini, and founded his own religious school, Haghai School. He is a hardliner, who earned himself the nickname "Professor Crocodile" among his students. He has a directorship of the Imam Khomeini Education and Research Institute in the holy city of Qom, where he is based in a long-established Haqqani seminary.
A measure of Mezba-Yazdi's hardline credentials can be found in his statement: "If anyone insults the Islamic sanctities, Islam has permitted for his blood to be spilled, no court needed either." Another of his quoted statements is "If someone tells you he has a new interpretation of Islam, sock him in the mouth". Former president Ayatollah Khatami had called Mezba-Yazdi the theoretician of violence.
Mesba-Yazdi is the most influential member of a group called the Hojjatieh. This group was founded in 1953, and though it gained great influence in the revolution of 1979, and the deposition of the Shah, it fell foul of Ayatollah Khomeini, who banned it in 1983. The group went officially dormant for a brief period, and recently it has been gaining in influence.
During the early years of the Hojjatieh Society, it had been exploited by the Shah of Iran to persecute members of the Ba'hai faith.
Ayatollah Mesba-Yazdi has become both a spiritual and political guru for President Ahmadinejad, and the cleric's influence certainly helped Ahmadinejad to become elected sixth president of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 28, 2005. In the run-up to the elections, the cleric issued a fatwa urging people to vote for Ahmadinejad, who was almost unknown outside of Tehran. His support ensured that Ahmadinejad became the first non-clerical president since the revolution.
Mesbah-Yazdi is totally opposed to the West, and has urged total isolation from it. He accuses the United States of trying to destroy Islamic values forever. These themes have resurfaced in Ahmadinejad's speeches. Mesbah-Yazdi supports floggings, the death penalty, and vehemently supports the forcing of women to wear traditional chadoors, which are the Iranian equivalent of burkas.
A sign that perhaps gives insight into Ahmadinejad's perspective on "peace-keepers" is found in a sermon given by Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi at Tehran university, where he stated: "We should know that 1,400 years ago the Koran said that the enemies of Islam will always fight while chanting peace-seeking slogans."
The cleric was contemptuous of the liberalising and democratic reforms introduced by Ayatollah Khatami: "An Islamic government must combat this, because injecting misleading ideas is like injecting the Aids virus!"
Mesbah-Yazdi is also responsible for authorising death-squads during the 1990s, which killed opponents of Iran both a home and abroad. He gained his nickname "Professor Crcodile" when he had Nikahang Kowsar, Iran;s most prominent cartoonist, thrown in jail for depicting an academic reptile, throttling a journalist with its tail.
But the real worry over Iran's development of nuclear technology aimed ultimately at creating a nuclear bomb can be found in the theology of the Hojjatieh Society. On Sunday, the Telegraph published an article written by Amir Taheri, who used to be the Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran's largest daily newspaper, before coming to Europe to live.
Taheri is in no doubt that Ahmadinejad is influenced by the theology espoused by the Hojjatieh Society. We reported here that at a Friday sermon, Ahmadinejad had declared: "Our revolution's main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi."
The Mahdi is Abul-Qassem Mohammad, the 12th leader whom Shi'ites consider descended from the Prophet Mohammed. Abdul-Qassem is said to have disappeared from earth in the year 941. According to the doctrines of the Hojjatieh Society, he will return as the Mahdi at the end of time, to introduce an era of Islamic peace and justice.
According to Amir Taheri:
In every generation, the Imam chooses 36 men, (and, for obvious reasons, no women) naming them the owtad or "nails", whose presence, hammered into mankind's existence, prevents the universe from "falling off". Although the "nails" are not known to common mortals, it is, at times, possible to identify one thanks to his deeds. It is on that basis that some of Ahmadinejad's more passionate admirers insist that he is a "nail", a claim he has not discouraged. For example, he has claimed that last September, as he addressed the United Nations' General Assembly in New York, the "Hidden Imam drenched the place in a sweet light".Taheri warns that Ahmadinejad is involved in a campaign of trying to weaken the US, and may by the end of the month agree to suspend the nuclear programme, but would continue it in secret.
But what is truly worrying about the doctrines of the Hojjatieh, and its messianic prophecy concerning the return of the 12th Imam, is the way in which certain circumstances must be set in place to presage his arrival. The only way to bring the Mahdi back from his "grand occultation" is for there to be a world full of chaos. And for the world to be full of chaos Ahmadinejad is doing all that he can to bring about the wishes of the Hojjatieh Society.
Ahmadinejad is certainly succeeding. One means of introducing chaos is to threaten Israel, and yesterday's UK Guardian reports that a group of radicals based in Tehran publicly announced that it is trying to recruit Iranians and Muslims, currently living in Britain, to become suicide bombers in Israel.
This group is called The Committee for the Commemoration of Martyrs of the Global Islamic Campaign, It claims to be independent, but it is backed by the regime. This organisation made its announcement hours after the attack upon Israel by Islamic Jihad, who are funded by Iran.
Mohammad Samadi, a spokesperson for the group said: "The first target is Israel. For us, that is the battlefield. All the Jews are targets, whether military or civilian. It's our land and they are in the wrong place. It's their duty to pay attention to safety of their own families and move them away from the battlefield." Samadi claimed that several hundred volunteers have become members during the past few days. Among its aims, the killing of Salman Rushdie appears to be an objective.
A spokesperson for the Uk foreign office said: "We have longstanding concerns at the support that Iran provides to groups undermining peace in the Middle East through violence, including the activities of this group."
The Committee for the Commemoration of Martyrs of the Global Islamic Campaign was formed two years ago, and is linked to the feared Revolutionary Guards.
Though the current situation seems dire, there may still be a sign of hope to come.
ANOTHER WAY FORWARD?
The hope may lie in the Iranian people themselves, who until Ahmadinejad started his West-baiting agenda, complete with banning of Western movies, increasing power to the vigilantes of the Bassij, and removing women's rights to walk uncovered, had been spoiled by reforms.
Under Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad's presidential predecessor, the people had seen a (slight) relaxation of the totalitarian theocratic society, for the first time since the days of the Shah.
We wrote in February of the bus driver's strike which had gone on in Iran. The repressive measures taken against strikers left citizens in no doubt about the oppressive nature of Ahmadinejad's rulership. One thousand striking drivers were cast into jail. Massoud Osaniou, the leader of the bus driver's union, was abducted from his home by Bassij vigilantes, and to keep him quiet, part of his tongue was cut out.
The United States has been following a twin track towards countering the insanity that is Iran. While the Pentagon holds talks discussing the logistics of a pre-emptive strike against nuclear facilities, Condoleeza announced in February that the State Department would be asking for $75 million from Congress to help to support Iran's fractured pro-democracy movement and fund Farsi-language satellite broadcasts, stated the Telegraph.
The working class poor people had voted for Ahmadinejad because he had promised to improve their financial position. The actions around the bus strike have shown how little the working person is valued by Ahmadinejad.
While the press is censored, and journalists are threatened with death or jail, the internet has been a new weapon in countering the propaganda of the regime. The most notable internet source, challenging the dogma and abuse of the system is Rooz Online.
Similarly, though it is criticised for being a pro-monarchist site, Iran Focus relies on reporters within Iran feeding out information to the outside world. For exampe, today it details the case of a youth who was flogged publicly 74 times in Karaj city, north-west of Tehran, for the crime of drinking alcohol.
As well as the internet, there is also the ubiquitous cellular phone network, and text messaging is used to disseminate facts, criticisms and humour to a wide audience within the country. Earlier this week we reported how Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was outraged by satirical text messages which claimed that he does not wash enough. A normal person would brush off such comments, but the Islamist leader was incensed, as not washing (wudu) is a sin in Islam.
News of this event, and the leader's repressive reactions, came from Rooz. And as well as journalism-driven websites, there are blogs. Rooz claims there are 100,000 bloggers in Iran. 70% of these have been harassed, but their news reaches others, within and outside of Iran.
But earlier today, the Guardian reported that a survey, published on Wednesday, indicated that the biggest threat to Ahmadinejad's repressive regime will come, not from US or Israeli air strikes, but from internal political divisions
Entitled Understanding Iran, the report was conducted by the Foreign Policy Centre. It announces: "The only chance of modifying Iran's behaviour in the short term will come from a serious effort to engage with the current leadership."
The report advised setting up an international body in the Middle East to attempt to quell the rising fears of military action. But it is in no doubt about the weaknesses of the regime.
"Behind the scenes a fierce struggle is under way. In one camp is President Ahmadinejad, his supporters in the Revolutionary Guards and the paramilitary force known as the Basijis, and messianic fundamentalists inspired by the teachings of Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi. In the other camp is Iran's embattled democratic movement [and] an array of forces that benefited from the status quo before Ahmadinejad came to power, including former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani," the study states.
The population of Iran is more than 70 million. 65% of its people are below the age of 25. The government is prone to corruption, its energy industry is producing less oil for export, and the youth of the nation are finding ways around the government's tight controls on people having access to the foreign media and internet accessibility.
The only way to keep a population content is to provide food and work, and in this the government is failing. "According to the government's own estimates some 900,000 new jobs are needed annually to accommodate the burgeoning labour force and prevent an increase in unemployment, officially at 16%, unofficially at over 20%."
As well as abuses of human rights, the public executions of young people, the discrimination of women (who had felt socially freer under the last president), there are enough underlying sources of dissent from within the nation to bode badly for Ahmadinejad's repressive regime.
The report suggests that these conditions within the nation could be the catalysts for finally bringing to an end to the orthodox and unyielding theocracy which has governed the nation since 1979. Though advising against interference from outside, the report suggests that there may still be hope for freedom and change.
* End of article
Posted by Giraldus Cambrensis at April 20, 2006 2:02 AM
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